22 Apr

Bank of Canada Scales Back Bond Buying

Latest News

Posted by: John Dunford

Today, the Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank is also adjusting its bond-buying program from weekly net purchases of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds of $4 billion to $3 billion. This adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each […]

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21 Apr

Chrystia Freeland’s First Budget is As Promised

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Posted by: John Dunford

In more than two years, the first federal budget extends Ottawa’s COVID-19 “lifeline” for workers and struggling businesses another few months as it aims to pull Canada through the pandemic once and for all. Clocking in at a bulky 724 pages, this is a highly detailed budget that sets the stage for post-pandemic policy in […]

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19 Apr

What is All the Policy Hysteria About?

Latest News

Posted by: John Dunford

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national existing home sales hit another all-time high in March. What was arguably more noteworthy was that new listings hit their highest level on record in seasonally adjusted terms in March. Prices continued to rise as sales dwarfed the new supply. The number of homes […]

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13 Apr

Blowout Canadian Job Growth Continued In March

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Posted by: John Dunford

This morning, Statistics Canada released the March 2021 Labour Force Survey showing much stronger-than-expected job growth for the second month in a row, pointing towards a Q1 growth rate of more than 5.5%. This survey reflected labour market conditions during the week of March 14 to 20, when public health restrictions were less restrictive in […]

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9 Apr

Banking Regulator Aims To Make It Tougher To Get An Uninsured Mortgage

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Posted by: John Dunford

With several Big-Five bank CEOs calling for regulatory action to slow the red-hot housing market, it didn’t take long for the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), the governor of federally regulated financial institutions, to respond. In a news release issued today, OSFI proposed an increase in uninsured mortgages’ qualifying rate to the […]

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7 Apr

The Bank of Canada Is Seeing “Worrying” Signs About Debt

General

Posted by: John Dunford

The Bank of Canada is seeing “worrying” signs that some Canadians are taking on too much debt to buy into the nation’s hot housing market. In an interview with the Financial Post, Governor Tiff Macklem said there is evidence that loan levels relative to home values are growing — an indication that some borrowers could […]

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17 Mar

Housing Continued to Surge in February

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Posted by: John Dunford

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics showing national home sales hit another all-time high in February 2021. Canadian home sales increased a whopping 6.6% month-on-month (m-o-m), building on the largest winter housing boom in history. On a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis, existing home sales surged an amazing 39.2%. As the chart below shows, […]

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15 Mar

Easing Restrictions Ignite Canadian Job Market In February

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Posted by: John Dunford

This morning, Statistics Canada released the February 2021 Labour Force Survey showing much stronger-than-expected job growth. The early days of the latest easing in COVID restrictions reinvigorated the labour market. Economists were pleasantly surprised by the rapid rebound. To be sure, there remain risks to the outlook, a rise in virus cases because of the […]

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11 Mar

Bank of Canada Holds Rates and Bond-Buying Steady

Latest News

Posted by: John Dunford

Much has changed since the Bank of Canada’s last decision on January 20. While the second pandemic wave was raging, new lockdowns were implemented in late 2020, and there were fears that the economy, in consequence, was likely to grow at a 4.8% annual rate in Q4 and contract in Q1. Instead, the lockdowns were […]

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3 Mar

Strong Canadian Economic Growth in Q4 and January

Latest News

Posted by: John Dunford

This morning’s Stats Canada release showed that economic growth in the final quarter of last year was a surprisingly strong 9.6% (annualized). The surge in growth in January was even more interesting, estimated at a 0.5% (not annualized) pace. If these numbers pan out, it means that Canada did not suffer a contraction during the […]

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