13 Oct

Canada Has Recouped Three-Quarters Of Pandemic Job Losses

General

Posted by: John Dunford

The September Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Statistics Canada, reflects labour market conditions during the week of September 13 to 19, six months after the onset of the COVID-19 economic shutdown. As Canadian families adapted to new back-to-school routines at the beginning of September, public health restrictions had been substantially eased across the […]

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24 Sep

Throne Speech: Canada’s Response to COVID-19

General

Posted by: John Dunford

Prorogation on August 18, following the resignation of Finance Minister Morneau, a new session of Parliament, and a new speech from the throne was meant to allow the government to hit the reset button. And for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, to try and move past the summer of controversy involving WE Charity and the Canada […]

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21 Sep

Canadian Housing Market Sets Record Highs in August

General

Posted by: John Dunford

Today’s release of August housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed a blockbuster August with both sales and new listings hitting their highest levels in 40 years of data–exceeding the record July activity levels. This continues the rebound in housing that began four months ago. National home sales rose a further 6.2% […]

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14 Sep

Bank of Canada Relies on Quantitative Easing

General

Posted by: John Dunford

As promised, the Bank held its target overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 25 basis points with the clear notion that negative policy rates are not in the cards. Instead, the central bank will rely on large-scale asset purchases–quantitative easing (QE–of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. QE […]

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24 Jun

First Formal Remarks By Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada Governor

General

Posted by: John Dunford

There were no surprises this morning from Governor Macklem’s virtual presentation to the Canadian Clubs of Canada. His opening written statement was quite brief and it was followed up with a Q and A. Here are the key points that he emphasized. Negative interest rates are off the table as they “lead to distortions in […]

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11 Jun

CMHC Tightening Up Their Guidelines Not A Big Deal As The 2 Other Insurers Don’t

General

Posted by: John Dunford

Canadians of all stripes were blindsided on June 4, when the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation suddenly revised certain key underwriting guidelines. The story got a little more interesting on Monday, when CMHC’s competitors in the mortgage insurance space, Genworth Canada and Canada Guaranty, both announced they would not be following suit. “Genworth Canada believes […]

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8 Jun

More Green Shoots–Employment Rebounds 10.6% in May

General

Posted by: John Dunford

The doomsayers have been proven wrong by this employment report and by the high-frequency data that have been pointing to the start of a rebound in Canada’s economic activity. We have been signalling green shoots in the economy for several weeks, and while these are early days, those green shoots are surely growing. We are […]

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4 Jun

Bank of Canada Takes A More Positive Tone

General

Posted by: John Dunford

On the heels of a devastating decline in the Canadian economy, the Bank of Canada suggested today that the worst of the pandemic’s negative impact on the global economy is behind us, conceding, however, that uncertainty remains high. The Bank today maintained its target overnight rate at 0.25%. No additional rate cut was expected as […]

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1 Jun

Near-Record Decline in Q1 GDP Better Than Flash Estimate

General

Posted by: John Dunford

Near-Record Decline in Q1 GDP Better Than Flash Estimate The hand-wringing about the Q1 GDP data released today misses the point that the data were actually better than expected. The Canadian economy declined at an 8.2% annualized rate in the first quarter, less harsh than the earlier estimate by StatsCan of -10%. Of course, every […]

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