The employment report is the lone bright spot in an economy that has slumped across the board. According to today’s jobs report from Statistics Canada, the economy added 55,900 net new jobs last month, all of them full-time positions. This is the second consecutive monthly job surge for an economy that has barely grown in the past five months (see chart below). The two-month accretion is the best start to a year since 1981. Canada’s economy has added 290,000 jobs since August, the most substantial six-month rise since the early 2000s. Moreover, there are still a half-million job vacancies which continue to attract foreign workers.

The Canadian dollar shot up on the news, bouncing back from its plunge on Wednesday when the Bank of Canada signalled that the widespread weakness would keep the Bank on the sidelines for longer than expected.

In a speech yesterday, Deputy Governor Lynn Patterson said policymakers spent “a lot of time” in policy deliberations discussing four-quarter output data that she said were weak in certain areas — citing business investment, housing and consumption. The soft data mean the economy will probably be weaker in the first half of this year than the Bank of Canada had been anticipating as recently as January, Patterson said. She characterized the data picture as “mixed” and said the economy is likely to rebound later in 2019, boosted by the robust labour market. In January, the Bank of Canada forecasts a rebound in the second quarter of this year.

The employment gains in recent months come amid an otherwise dismal performance for the economy amid stresses in the oil sector, weakening housing markets, diminishing trade prospects, volatility in global financial markets and waning consumer and business confidence. Economists were forecasting an employment gain of just 1,200 in February.

The unemployment rate in February was unchanged at 5.8% as the number of people searching for work held steady. The strength, however, was not widespread across the country. Ontario was the sole province with a notable employment rise last month while the jobless rate was unchanged as more people were looking for work. Net new jobs declined in Manitoba and were little changed in the remaining provinces.

Even the wage picture is improving. Annual average hourly wage gains accelerated to 2.3% last month from 2% in January, with pay for permanent employees up 2.2% compared to 1.8% previously.

Bottom Line: The Bank of Canada will remain on hold until the strength in the labour market filters into consumer and business spending. The headwinds of global uncertainty, energy market weakness and the housing slowdown contribute to the Bank’s cautious stance. The Canadian trade gap hit a record high in December, reported earlier this week, almost entirely due to the collapse in crude oil prices. It was a fifth straight monthly decline in Canadian exports. Also, the US tariffs on steel and aluminum exports continue to weigh on the economy. It appears there is little prospect that the renegotiated Canada-Mexico-US trade deal will be confirmed by the US Congress this year, adding to the uncertainty.

In a very dovish statement, the Bank of Canada acknowledged this morning that the slowdown in the Canadian economy has been deeper and more broadly based than it had expected earlier this year. The Bank had forecast weak exports and investment in the energy sector and a decline in consumer spending in the oil-producing provinces in the January Monetary Policy Report. However, as indicated by the mere 0.1% quarterly growth in GDP in the fourth quarter, the deceleration in activity was far more troubling. Consumer spending, especially for durable goods, and the housing market were soft despite strong jobs growth. Both exports and business investment were also disappointing. Today’s Bank of Canada statement said, “after growing at a pace of 1.8 per cent in 2018, it now appears that the economy will be weaker in the first half of 2019 than the Bank projected in January.”

As was unanimously expected, the Bank maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1-3/4% for the third consecutive time and dropped its earlier reference for the need to raise the overnight rate in the future to a neutral level, estimated at roughly 2-1/2%. The Bank also added an assertion that borrowing costs will remain below neutral for now and “given the mixed picture that the data present, it will take time to gauge the persistence of below-potential growth and the implications for the inflation outlook. With increased uncertainty about the timing of future rate increases, the Governing Council will be watching closely developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy.”

At the same time, Governor Poloz seems reluctant to abandon entirely the idea that the next step is likely higher — making him a bit of an outlier among industrialized economy central bankers.

We are left with the view that the Bank is unlikely to hike interest rates again this year. The global economy has slowed more than expected and central banks in many countries, including the U.S., have moved to the sidelines. Market interest rates have already dropped reflecting this reality.

According to Bloomberg News, “swaps trading suggests investors are giving zero probability that the Bank of Canada will budge rates, either higher or lower, from here. The Canadian dollar extended declines after the decision, falling 0.7 percent to C$1.3438 against the U.S. currency at 10:04 a.m. Yields on government 2-year bond dropped 6 basis points to 1.68 percent.”

February Cold Chills Toronto and Vancouver Housing Markets While Montreal Continues Strong

In separate news, local realtor boards reported this week that recent housing market patterns continued in February. Resale housing activity fell last month to its lowest level for a February since 2009 in both Vancouver and Toronto, while home sales ramped up in Montreal, marking four years of continuous growth.

The month-over-month declines in Vancouver and Toronto were substantial. Home resales dropped by nearly 8% (on a preliminary seasonally-adjusted basis) in Toronto and by more than 7% in Vancouver. Soft demand in Vancouver kept prices under downward pressure in what has been a buyers’ market. Vancouver’s composite MLS House Price Index (HPI) is now down 8% from its June 2018 peak. And the correction probably isn’t over.

In Toronto, the MLS HPI in February was still 2.3% above its level a year ago, though it has decelerated in the past couple of months from 3.0% in December.

Blasts of bad weather can easily exaggerate demand weakness in winter when markets are at their seasonal low point. However, Montrealers certainly seemed impervious to the weather.

Quebec’s real estate broker association reported home sales in metropolitan Montreal rose 8% in February compared with the same month last year. As well, average residential prices increased 4.9% in metro Montreal and 6.1% on the island of Montreal.

More complete housing data will be available mid-month when the Canadian Real Estate Board releases its February report.

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales improved in January, climbing 3.6% from December ’18 to January ’19. Last year’s annual sales were the weakest since 2012.

As the chart below shows, national monthly home sales remain below their 10-year moving average and are decidedly lower than in the boom years of 2016 and 2017. Households are still adjusting to the tightened mortgage qualification rules introduced in January 2018. The number of homes trading hands was up from the previous month in half of all local markets, led by Montreal, Ottawa and Winnipeg.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales were down 4% from year-ago levels and posted the weakest January since 2015. Year-over-year (y/y) sales were below the 10-year average for January on a national basis and in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Housing market conditions remain weakest in the Prairie region, and the Lower Mainland of B.C. Housing has been more fragile than the Bank of Canada expected, notwithstanding the tighter mortgage regulations combined with previous actions by provincial governments and CMHC to slow housing activity. The slowdown in housing has contributed meaningfully to the weakness in Canadian economic activity.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes edged up 1% in January, led by a jump in new supply in Greater Vancouver and Hamilton-Burlington.

With sales up by more than new listings, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 56.7% compared to 55.3% posted in December. This measure of market balance has remained close to its long-term average of 53.5% for the last year.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, more than half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in January 2019.

There were 5.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2019, in line with its long-term average. That said, the well-balanced national reading masks significant regional differences. The number of months of inventory has swollen far above its long-term average in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador; as a result, homebuyers there have an ample choice of listings available for purchase. By contrast, the measure remains well below its long-term average in Ontario and Prince Edward Island, consistent with seller’s market conditions. In other provinces, sales and inventory are more balanced.

Home Prices
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) was up 0.8% y/y in January 2019 – the smallest increase since June 2018.

Following a well-established pattern, condo apartment units recorded the largest y/y price increase in January (+3.3%), followed by townhouse/row units (+1.5%). By comparison, two-storey single-family home prices were little changed (+0.1%) while one-storey single-family home prices edged down (-1.1%).

Trends continue to vary widely among the 17 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. Results were mixed in British Columbia. Prices were down on a y/y basis in Greater Vancouver (-4.5%) and the Fraser Valley (-0.8%). By contrast, prices posted a y/y increase of 4.2% in Victoria and were up 9.3% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Among housing markets tracked by the index in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+6.8%), the Niagara Region (+6.8%), Hamilton-Burlington (+6.4%), Oakville-Milton (+3.3%) and the GTA (+3%). Home prices in Barrie and District remain slightly below year-ago levels (-1.1%).

Among Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (+7.2%), the Niagara Region (+7%), Hamilton-Burlington (+5%), Oakville-Milton (+3.9%) and the GTA (+2.7%). By contrast, home prices in Barrie and District remain below year-ago levels (-2.7%).

Across the Prairies, supply is historically elevated relative to sales, causing benchmark home prices to remain down from year-ago levels in Calgary (-3.9%), Edmonton (-2.9%), Regina (-3.8%) and Saskatoon (-2%). The home pricing environment will likely remain weak in these cities until elevated supply is reduced.

Home prices rose 7.1% y/y in Ottawa (led by a 9.5% increase in townhouse/row unit prices), 6.3% in Greater Montreal (led by a 9.2% increase in townhouse/row unit prices) and 1% in Greater Moncton (led by a 15.1% increase in townhouse/row unit prices). (see Table 1 below).

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada meets again on March 6th and it is highly unlikely they will hike interest rates. The Canadian economy has been burdened with a weakened oil sector, reduced trade and a weak housing market. Although job growth has been stronger than expected, wage gains have moderated and inflation pressures are muted.

We are likely in store for a prolonged period of modest housing gains in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, stability or softening in much of British Columbia and further weakening in the Prairies, Alberta, and Newfoundland & Labrador.

Sluggish sales and modestly rising prices nationally are likely in prospect for 2019. While there will still be some significant regional divergences, there is no need for further policy actions to affect demand. Indeed, a growing chorus has been calling for lowering the mortgage qualification rate from the posted five-year fixed rate, currently 5.34%, to closer to the actual conventional rate, about 200 basis points lower.

The Big 6 banks dominate the Canadian mortgage market but may not be the best choice for borrowers.

An analysis from LowestRates.ca has found that, in 2018, Canada’s largest banks – RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC, and National Bank of Canada – were consistently the most expensive options.

Even the lowest rates of the Big 6 were always costlier than the lowest rates from smaller lenders, the study found.

“The big banks never offer the lowest posted rates on the market, but Canadians aren’t spending enough time researching rates before signing their mortgages, and that’s potentially costing them thousands of dollars a year,” said Justin Thouin, CEO and Co-Founder of LowestRates.ca.

He added that Canadians are used to shopping around for the best prices on items such as TVs or vacations but often fail to realise that the same strategy could mean big savings on their mortgage.

How much could borrowers save?

As a typical example, LowestRates.ca found that when RBC lowered its 5-year rate to 3.74%, consumers on that rate would pay $2,560 per month on a $500,000 mortgage (assuming a down payment of at least 20% per cent to avoid CMHC insurance, and a 25-year amortization period).

But the best available rate on LowestRates.ca was 3.23%, saving borrowers $134 per month (with a payment of $2,426) – or a staggering $40,200 over the lifetime of the loan.

“Brokers and smaller lenders often drop their rates first to be more competitive, and banks are slower to implement changes because they know they own the market,” Thouin said. “This will only change when Canadians realize they’re being overcharged and begin to shift away from the banks, and that will only happen as we increase awareness about the alternative market. The best deals are found online, not in your family’s legacy bank branch.”

Housing News

January Data From Local Real Estate Boards

In separate releases, the local real estate boards in Canada’s largest housing markets released data this week showing home sales fell sharply in Vancouver, edged upward in Toronto and continued robust in Montreal. Overall, higher interest rates, the mortgage stress test and in the case of Vancouver, measures adopted a year ago by the BC and municipal governments still keep many buyers on the sidelines.

In Vancouver, home sales are in a deep slump, declining 39% year/year in January, though they were up 3% month/month. Sales in January were the weakest for that month since 2009–the depth of the financial crisis. Hardest hurt were sales of luxury properties.

The Vancouver benchmark price fell 4.5%, which was the most significant decline since the recession. The area’s composite benchmark price now has decreased by 7.7% since the cyclical peak in June 2018.

The number of listings rose sharply from a year earlier as sellers rushed to market fearing further price declines. In Vancouver, supply-demand conditions now favour buyers.
Toronto home sales edged higher in January, rising 0.6% year/year. Sales were up 3.4% compared to December 2018. The benchmark price rose 2.7% compared to January 2018. The condo apartment market segment continues to lead the price gains. Toronto area supply-demand conditions remain balanced.

Montreal saw a 15% year/year increase in sales last month. Demand remains robust as the number of active listings fell sharply. Benchmark prices of single-family homes increased 3% year/year, while condos prices rose 2%.

Montreal is now a highly desirable sellers’ market, which is especially true in the single-family home segment in direct contrast to the underperformance of that sector in the GVA and the GTA over the past year.

CMHC Says Overvaluation Decreasing But Housing Still ‘Vulnerable’

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said this week that the country’s overall real estate market remains ‘vulnerable’ despite an easing in overvaluation in cities like Toronto and Victoria in the third quarter of 2018. CMHC is using old data, as we already have numbers through yearend 2018 and preliminary data for January, all showing that overheating in Toronto and Vancouver has dissipated.

Many Calling for Mortgage Stress Test Review

Local real estate boards, mortgage professionals’ trade groups and some economists are calling for some relief on the stringency of the federal regulator’s mortgage stress test. According to Phil Moore, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, “Today’s market conditions are largely the result of the mortgage stress test that the federal government imposed at the beginning of last year. This measure, coupled with an increase in mortgage rates, took away as much as 25% of purchasing power from many homebuyers trying to enter the market.”

Economists at CIBC and BMO this week highlighted that the tightened qualification requirements for mortgage applicants had slowed activity measurably. While raising the qualification rate by 200 basis points might have made sense eighteen months ago, when housing markets were red hot in Vancouver and Toronto and interest rates were at record lows, we are in a very different place in the economic cycle today.

The Bank of Canada has raised the overnight benchmark policy rate by 75 basis points since the introduction of the new measures, which begs the question of whether 200 basis points is still the right number.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) introduced the B20 rules in January 2018 aiming to thwart a credit bubble amid inflated household debt burdens and frothy housing markets. The new rules force people who want a new uninsured mortgage to demonstrate they can manage payments at rates two percentage points above what’s being offered by a lender. The new rules have been very effective in cooling household borrowing and reversing the gains in overheated housing markets.

Indeed, mortgage growth has shrunk to a 17-year low in Canada. Residential mortgage growth was posted at 3.1% in December from a year earlier, the slowest pace since May 2001, and half the growth rate of two years ago.

The slowdown in housing has had a material effect on the economy as a whole. Weakened economic growth has moved the Bank of Canada to the sidelines. While the Bank is now more cautious in jacking up the policy rate to a neutral level, the residential mortgage market is now–in a stress-test perspective–well into restrictive territory. For example, the Bank’s policy rate is at 1.75% (well below the 2.5% rate the BoC considers neutral), while posted mortgage rate used for stress testing is at 5.34%.

This week, OSFI defended the B20 rule suggesting that “The stress test is, quite simply, a safety buffer that ensures a borrower doesn’t stretch their borrowing capacity to its maximum, leaving no room to absorb unforeseen events.”

Canadian Job Market Surges in January

Statistics Canada released its January Labour Force Survey this morning showing employment increases of 66,800 versus expectation of merely a 5,000 job gain. The surge was led by record private-sector hiring and service sector jobs for youth. This is good news for an economy facing considerable headwinds in the oil sector, weakening housing activity, volatile financial markets and falling consumer confidence. If sustained, the strong employment data will ease some concerns about the length and depth of the current soft patch.

Even with the strength in job creation, the unemployment rate jumped 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% as more people looked for work–a sign of strength. This suggests there is more capacity in the economy before inflation pressures begin to mount–a big point for the Bank of Canada. Economic growth is now hovering around 1%, but the Bank of Canada expects it to recover to about a 2% pace in the second half of this year. The central bank will remain on the sidelines until it can verify that a rebound is occurring.

Wage gains remained depressed, a key indicator for the Bank. Average hourly wages were up 2% from a year ago, with pay for permanent employees up 1.8%.

Alberta, which has been flattened by slumping oil prices and production cuts, posted a second consecutive monthly decline in employment. Ontario led the job surge followed by Quebec.

Provincial Unemployment Rates
(% 2019, In Ascending Order)

Province                                                  Jan        Dec
British Columbia                                   4.7         4.4
Quebec                                                    5.4         5.5
Saskatchewan                                        5.5         5.6
Manitoba                                                5.5         6.0
Ontario                                                    5.7         5.4
Alberta                                                    6.8         6.4
Nova Scotia                                            6.9         7.0
New Brunswick                                     8.2         8.4
Prince Edward Island                          9.9         9.6
Newfoundland and Labrador          11.4        11.7

The tighter mortgage rules introduced at the start of 2018 have been defended by the financial services regulator.

The B-20 mortgage guidelines continue to be cited by Realtors for falling home sales and there have been countless calls for them to be changed or scrapped.

But the assistant superintendent of OSFI spoke Tuesday to defend the methods the regulator is using to ensure stability of the Canadian financial system.

In a speech to the Economic Club of Canada in Toronto, Carolyn Rogers acknowledged the huge number of articles and commentaries there have been over the past year – and noting that B-20 even has its own social media hashtag.

But she said that all the OSFI rules go through a public consultation and all receive feedback which is listened to.

Stress test criticism

Ms. Rogers spoke specifically about the element of B-20 which has received the most attention – and continues to weaken home sales and challenge those who want to be homebuyers.

“The stress test is, quite simply, a safety buffer that ensures a borrower doesn’t stretch their borrowing capacity to its maximum, leaving no room to absorb unforeseen events. This is simply prudent. It’s prudent for the bank and it’s prudent for the borrower too,” she said.

She acknowledged that OSFI has received criticism of the stress test but said there had been positive feedback too.

Addressing those who say the stress test is a national policy to deal with a localized problem, she says that it is wrong to say that the policy was designed to lower home prices.

“B-20 was designed to target mortgage underwriting standards. And sound underwritings look the same no matter what city or province you live in,” she stated.

The deputy superintendent also pointed out that the stress test is not just designed as a buffer to rising interest rates – responding to those who say now rates are higher the buffer should be reduced.

“Borrowers face other risks that can impact their ability to pay their mortgage that I mentioned earlier: changes to income or changes to expenses other than their mortgage. It’s prudent to have a buffer for these changes as well,” Ms Rogers said.

OSFI continues to monitor the situation in consultation with the BoC she added.

Unregulated lenders

Responding to the view that tighter lending standards for regulated mortgage lenders is driving consumers to unregulated lenders, Ms. Rogers accepted that this is a risk.

But she urged mortgage brokers and real estate agents to mitigate this by guiding vulnerable homebuyers including first-time buyers in the right direction.

“The mortgage broker and the real estate industry are well placed to help manage this risk. If you see risks, if you think these options put your borrower in a vulnerable position, you can steer them away. That would be the right thing to do,” she said.

Renewals exemption

The exemption for borrowers who renew with their existing lender but would not pass the stress test has been criticized as dampening competition, as the exemption does not pass to the new lender.

The deputy superintendent said that changing this could displace borrowers who are meeting obligations to their current lender and could see borrowers becoming the focus of price competition.

Whether this lack of portability means those renewing receive less favourable rates by existing lenders has not been shown by OSFI’s monitoring.

More debt is not the answer to home affordbality

Ms. Rogers concluded by saying that the answer to rising home affordability issues is not greater debt fuelled by lower underwriting standards.

While noting that the issues of housing costs were a problem that is proving highly challenging, she defended OSFI’s policies and the criticism of ‘unintended consequences’ and highlighted that weaker lending standards have been shown to do more harm to financial stability than the benefits they were intended to create.

The Canadian economy is showing cracks in its foundation and, beginning with turmoil in Alberta, they will reverberate through the coming year.

Alberta’s oil glut in tandem with the federal government’s inability to build pipelines is having country-wide ramifications.

“The federal government has not been able to get its pipelines done and it’s really hurt the prospects of the Canadian economy,”  “That, along with the closing of the GM plant in Oshawa—eventually there will not be a GM plant in Canada—and I can see the Canadian and U.S. economies taking downturns.”

Even if the province goes ahead with a railcar transportation option, too much time will pass in the interim.

“They’re not going to have any way of getting their oil out,” said Ron Butler. “If they buy railcars, they won’t come on stream until November of next year.”

We expect fixed rates to be up to 0.5% higher in 2019 because of the variable rate spike and, specifically, how much more expensive it is for lenders to fund mortgages in light of repeated government intervention in the market.

“It’s become a lot more expensive for lenders to do mortgages with all the government intervention and the level of insurance they have to carry and their capital expenses,” he said. “It means higher rates. Banks are 1.8% above the five-year government bond rate and they’re happy to make a profit. Banks want to make up for their lower volume through higher rates, so they’re making more off every deal because it’s no longer a volume play.”

The Greater Toronto Area isn’t likely to change much next year. While there isn’t necessarily anything to make it worse, there doesn’t appear to be anything on the horizon that will improve it, either.

“There will be a softening of values, lower sales units and reduced total mortgage originations across the province,”. “There will be a tiny softening on the price side. Bear in mind that this year was down and next year will be even less so. There’s nothing that will improve it. Will the economy get better? No chance of that. Are mortgage rules suddenly going to be revised so that it will be enormously easier to get a mortgage? No chance.”

Condo sales will be strong in Toronto proper next year, but the 905 will be languid and so will the single-family detached market.

“Toronto is a tale of two markets,”. “Condos and houses, and people aren’t  just buying for investment purposes.”

The Bank of Canada will announce its December interest rates decision Wednesday and few are expecting a Grinch-like pre-Christmas shock.

But while there should be a pause on rate rises this month, a change from the central bank’s previously bullish tone on rate rises will be in focus given some shifting conditions since October’s increase.

CIBC Economics says that it may be necessary for the BoC to ease back from its confident stance of increasing rates to a 2.5-3.5% range, a range that CIBC believed was too aggressive even then.

With the oil production cuts announced by Alberta at the weekend, along with some other economic conditions, economist Avery Shenfeld says the BoC may sound a more dovish tone.

He says that the oil production cut will reduce real GDP in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 but that is not the only issue.

“More broadly, wage inflation seems to be in retreat, and GDP growth has been zero over the most recent two months. South of the border, both the Fed Chair and Vice Chair sounded less assured that American overnight rates would keep climbing as steadily as they have in the past year,” Avery wrote in a client note.

The BoC is not due to update its outlook at tomorrow’s meeting but Shenfeld says that there could still be some mention of the downside risks to previous GDP expectations.

CIBC Economics is holding steady on its forecast that interest rates will increase by 50 basis points in 2019 stretched over two hikes.

The Bank of Canada should hold pat on interest rates until the spring according to The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council.

It is calling for a hold-steady at 1.75% in December and January, with the next rate rise taking place by May 2019 (2%) and then a further rise by the end of 2019 to 2.25%.

The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target.

The MPC was unanimous in its opinion that rates should not rise when the BoC meets to decide next week, although was split on what to do in January with 4 in favour or a hike and 6 against.

Why the caution?

Many of the MPC members are concerned about lower global growth in the near and medium term and weaker demand for Canadian natural resources. This is worsened by the oil transportation challenges for producers.

Several members noted that lower prices and volumes for Canadian exports would depress national income in the coming quarters, with adverse effects for business and government revenues.

Domestically, although consumer credit has been growing strongly, mortgage lending has levelled off with housing activity, and the announcement that GM will close its Oshawa plant signifies that the auto cycle is past its peak.

Although some MPC members said that the federal government’s recent announcement of accelerated capital cost allowances will help at the margin, they emphasized that businesses are shifting to a defensive stance: the forecasters in the group said they had not revised their projections of business investment up appreciably.

Canada posted moderate employment gains as the unemployment rate dipped once again to historically low levels, which was the result of fewer people look for work. Despite very tight labour markets and rising job vacancy rates, wage growth weakened in October.

Statistics Canada released data today that showed a moderate 11.2k gain in employment, but also a falling labour force, which was down 18.2k. In consequence, the jobless rate fell back to 5.8% in October, matching a four-decade low. This is consistent with just under 2% economic growth as the Bank of Canada expects. This modest gain in employment suggests the Bank will hold interest rates steady in December, especially given that wage gains have slowed for the fifth consecutive month.

Continuing the see-saw pattern of late, full-time employment was in the driver’s seat, with 33.9k net positions added. Part-time work fell 22.6k. The overall gains were driven by the private sector (+20.3k) as public sector employment pulled back (-30.8k), leaving a 21.8k gain in self-employment.

These indicators are consistent with business surveys that are getting louder in their complaints that it’s difficult to find workers. But there is little evidence that firms are offering better pay to attract and retain employees. Wages were up 2.2% from a year ago, the slowest pace in more than a year and down from as high as 3.9% earlier this year. Wage gains for permanent workers were 1.9%, also the slowest in more than a year. This reduces the likelihood of a rate hike in December. The Bank of Canada’s wage common measure has been more stable at 2.3% so far this year. This is a better indicator of the underlying trend, but no doubt it’s still short of what we would expect at this point in the cycle.

Also, the participation rate fell to 65.2% last month, the lowest level in 20 years as the labour force increased by just 62.5k so far this year–one of the smallest 10-month gains in recent history. It is notable, however, that the participation rate for 25-54 year-olds–the core labour force–rose to a record high.

On a regional basis, employment rose slightly in Saskatchewan, while there was little change in all the other provinces (see table below).

More people were employed in business, building and other support services; wholesale and retail trade; and health care and social assistance. In contrast, there were fewer workers in “other services;” finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; and natural resources. Employment in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing declined by 15,000 in October, offsetting an increase the month before. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the industry was little changed as housing starts, and resales have slowed, especially in B.C. and Ontario.

Bottom Line: Income growth will be crucial in enabling households to manage debt loads in a rising rate environment and by extension a key determinant of the pace of future Bank of Canada interest rate hikes. Today’s jobs report along with other less timely data suggest the Bank of Canada will refrain from raising interest rates in December.

US Posted A Strong October Jobs Report

Hiring rebounded sharply last month in the US as non-farm payrolls added 250k new jobs, compared to 118k in September, which was restrained by disruption from Hurricane Florence. The unemployment rate held at its cycle-low 3.7%.

The closely watched measure of wage growth–average hourly earnings– rose 0.2% on the month. On a year-over-year basis, wages in the US were up 3.1%, a new post-recession high.

This is an unambiguously positive report. Hiring bounced back from a hurricane-dampened September. The number of Americans with jobs relative to the population reached a new post-recession high. And, perhaps most notably, wages continue to make progress.

With the Fed just having moved in September, we are not anticipating another hike at next week’s FOMC meeting as the central bank adheres to a gradual pace of tightening. However, our forecast does anticipate a 25-basis point increase at the next policy meeting in December followed by similar-sized hikes every quarter through next year. This results in the upper end of the fed funds rate range finishing 2019 at 3.50% compared to 2.25% currently.