As expected, the Bank held its target overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 25 basis points with the clear notion that negative policy rates are not in the cards. Instead, the central bank will continue to rely on large-scale asset purchases–quantitative easing (QE). The central bank is recalibrating its QE program as promised in recent weeks. In mid-October, it announced that it would end its Repo, Bankers Acceptance and Canada Mortgage Bond purchases this month, as they are no longer needed to assure liquidity in those markets. The volumes of purchases have declined sharply since April. This move will have minimal impact on market interest rates.

The Governing Council announced today it would also gradually reduce purchases of federal government bonds from at least $5 billion to at least $4 billion per week. “The Governing Council judges that, with these combined adjustments, the QE program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before.”

The PC opposition party has been warning Governor Macklem of the risks of financing Trudeau’s government spending. But the Bank has little alternative but to step-up its buying of newly issued benchmark bonds–those currently being sold by the government, as opposed to older debt that is becoming increasingly illiquid. As reported in Bloomberg News, “It means the bank’s quantitative easing program will increasingly mirror government debt sales at a time when opposition lawmakers are warning it against directly financing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s fiscal agenda.” (See chart below). The Bank already owns more than a third of all outstanding Government of Canada debt, proportionately more than most central banks because Canada ran budget surpluses, which paid down debt for so long.

Virtually every major central bank in the world is conducting an emergency QE program in response to the COVID-19 crisis. The Bank of Canada says its QE program reinforces its commitment to hold interest rates at historic lows over the next few years until the annual inflation rate is sustainably at its target 2% level. Today’s October Monetary Policy Report indicates they will likely keep the overnight rate at 0.25% until 2023.

The central bank has no intention of paring back stimulus, with risks to the economy growing amid the second wave of COVID-19 cases. “As the economy recuperates, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support,” the bank said. “We are committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.”

October Monetary Policy Report

• Following the sharp bounce back in growth that occurred when containment measures were lifted, and the economy reopened, the Canadian economy transitioned to a slower, more protracted recuperation phase of its recovery. The recovery phases are proceeding largely as described in the July Report, though the initial rebound was stronger than expected. Furthermore, the near-term slowing in the recuperation phase is likely to be more pronounced due to the recent increase of COVID-19 infections.
• There is ongoing and significant slack in the Canadian economy. The gap between the actual output and the economy’s potential output is not expected to close until 2023. The economy is progressing unevenly, with some sectors and workers disproportionately affected by the virus–particularly those in accommodation, food, arts, entertainment and recreation, as well as global transportation. Many of those hardest-hit are low-income workers.
• Oil prices remain below pre-pandemic levels and are assumed to remain around current levels, hitting Alberta hard.
• Ongoing slack in the economy is expected to continue to hold inflation down into 2023.

The Bank of Canada’s forecast for Canadian growth is shown in the table below. The economic recovery is projected to be prolonged, underpinned by policy support but largely influenced by the evolution of the virus, ongoing uncertainty and structural changes to the economy. These changes could result in longer-term shifts of workers and capital across different regions and sectors of the economy. This adjustment process weighs on the Bank’s estimates of potential growth.

After declining by about 5 1/2 percent in 2020, the economy is expected to expand by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. Two factors will likely lead to quarterly patterns of growth that are unusually choppy: localized outbreaks and containment measures and varied recovery rates across industries.

Inflation is expected to remain below the lower end of the Bank’s inflation-control target range of 1 to 3 percent until early 2021, largely due to the effects of low energy prices. Subsequently, inflation is anticipated to be within the target range, but economic slack will continue to put downward pressure on inflation throughout the projection period.

The Reopening Phase Was Strong But Uneven

Growth is estimated to have rebounded strongly in the third quarter, reversing about two-thirds of the decline observed in the first half of the year.  A sizable bounce back in activity resulted from a rebound in foreign demand, the release of pent-up demand for housing and some durable goods, and robust policy support.

Housing activity recovered sharply in the third quarter, supported by historically low financing costs, resilient incomes for higher-earning households, and extra sales and construction that made up for delayed spring activity (Chart 7). By September, cumulative resales are estimated to have compensated for the missed activity during the normally busy spring market. Housing activity may also be benefiting from changes in preferences. In particular, more than one-quarter of respondents to the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations in the third quarter of 2020 reported they would like to move to a larger or single-family home because of the pandemic. The strength of the housing market recovery, combined with a tight resale market, has led to the rapid growth of house prices in some markets. In contrast to the appreciation of house values observed in Toronto and Vancouver in 2016, price growth has been strongest in markets with moderate loan-to-income ratios, such as Ottawa, Montréal and Halifax.

Bottom Line

Interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The pandemic will largely determine the growth of the economy and the government’s response. Experts suggest that this second wave will last for much of the winter and that a widely dispersed vaccine will not be available until at least well into 2021. As tough as that is to take, Canada is still doing a better job of containing the virus than the US, UK and the Euro area. Output is likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels everywhere through the end of 2022, the Bank of Canada’s forecast horizon.

This Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate announcement and the October Monetary Policy Report. Most people expect the overnight rate to remain at 0.25%, where it has been since the pandemic hit. A few have suggested that the Bank could take a page from Australia and reduce overnight rates by 15 basis points. I don’t think so.

Canada’s economy is not as similar to Australia’s as you might think. Yes, both countries speak mostly English, are commodity exporters, and have a currency called the dollar. But that is where the similarities end. Australia is largely a supplier to China and East Asia, while the US dominates Canada’s exports. And our major resource is oil rather than metals. Most importantly, the Bank of Canada believes that lower rates would not be helpful, given the squeeze they put on the banking system’s workings.

The Bank has committed to staying at 0.25% until economic conditions would be consistent with a sustained 2% inflation rate. With the second wave of COVID cases and rolling shutdowns upon us, the economic rebound will slow in the coming quarters. Moreover, it is unlikely we will see inflation averaging above 2% or higher through 2022. The base case forecast for overnight rates by the Bank of Canada will remain at 0.25% until 2023 unless we see a miraculous end to the pandemic far sooner than most experts predict.

Where the Bank will make policy changes is in quantitative easing–the buying of financial assets to improve liquidity in financial markets. The Bank’s Governing Council has, for months, hinted at the need for the current structure of the QE program to be “calibrated.” While there have been few details on what this means, we interpret it to imply a move away from a QE program supporting ‘market-functioning’ to one that attempts to achieve a ‘monetary policy objective.’ To some degree, this has already started.

On October 15, the Bank announced it would retire the Repo purchase program, the Bankers’ Acceptance purchase Facility and the Canadian Mortgage Bond Purchase Program (CMBP). These areas of the Canadian fixed income market are fully functioning at present, and the Bank likely felt ongoing support was no longer necessary. The end of the CMBP got the attention of some mortgage market participants who argued it spelled the end of declining mortgage rates. I think this is a misinterpretation of the Bank’s actions.

As the chart below shows, the use of the CMBP has waned considerably since its introduction in March. It just isn’t needed any longer to assure liquidity in the CMB market. Since August, lenders have only been using about $70 to $190 million per week of the BoC’s $500 million capacity. The last time lenders fully utilized, it was in April when the emergency program was clearly needed. Ending this program should have little impact on mortgage rates.

“As overall financial market conditions continue to improve in Canada, usage in several of the Bank of Canada’s programs that support the functioning of key financial markets has declined significantly,” the Bank said in announcing the changes. The program, designed to provide much-needed liquidity to the banking system to keep credit flowing during the worst of the crisis, has “fallen into disuse as the stresses from the pandemic eased, and markets became much more self-sufficient.”

The move follows the bank’s decision a month ago to reduce its purchases of federal government treasury bills and similar short-term provincial money market debt, citing improvements in the health of short-term funding markets.

The CMB purchase program is also dwarfed by the Bank’s Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP), as the chart below shows. “The central bank has pledged repeatedly that it will maintain the highest-profile of its emergency asset-buying programs – its minimum $5-billion-a-week purchases of Government of Canada bonds – until the [economic] recovery is well underway. It has also so far maintained its two programs to purchase provincial and corporate bonds, even though both programs’ demand has been far below original expectations.

Mortgage rates in Canada have an 85% correlation with the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, which has fallen sharply over the course of the pandemic crisis.

Bottom Line

Of the three programs being wound down in the bank’s latest announcement, the biggest is the expanded term repo program, under which the central bank has purchased more than $200-billion of the short-term bank financing instruments since mid-March. The program hasn’t generated any purchases since mid-September.

The Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility, involving short-term credit instruments typically used in international trade financing, was used heavily when introduced in March. Still, it hasn’t been tapped at all since late April. The central bank made about $47-billion in purchases under the program. However, all of those purchased assets have since reached maturity, meaning the central bank is no longer holding any bankers’ acceptances on its balance sheet.

The Canada Mortgage Bond Purchase Program predates the pandemic, but the Bank of Canada ramped up its purchases dramatically during the crisis. Since mid-March, it has accumulated about $8-billion of the bonds under its emergency measures through twice-weekly purchases directly from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. The size of the bank’s typical purchases in the past couple of months has been less than a quarter of what it was routinely buying in the spring.

These changes in the QE program will have little impact on interest rates and mortgage markets.

Today’s release of September housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows national home sales rose 0.9% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) (see chart below). This continues the rebound in housing that began five months ago amid record-tight market conditions.

“Along with historic supply shortages in a number of regions, fierce competition among buyers has been putting upward pressure on home prices. Much of that was pent-up demand from the spring that came forward as our economies opened back up over the summer,” said Costa Poulopoulos, Chair of CREA.

According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Reasons have been cited for this – pent-up demand from the lockdowns, Government support to date, ultra-low interest rates, and the composition of job losses to name a few. I would also remind everyone that sales were almost setting records and markets were almost this tight back in February so we were already close to where things are now, as far away from Goldilocks territory as we had ever been before. But I think another wildcard factor to consider, which has no historical precedent, is the value of one’s home during this time. Home has been our workplace, our kids’ schools, the gym, the park and more. Personal space is more important than ever.”

The modest uptick in home sales nationally reflected diverse results regionally with about 60% of local markets seeing gains. Increases in Ottawa, Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Calgary and Hamilton-Burlington sales were mostly offset by declines in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Montreal; although, activity in the two largest Canadian markets is still historically very strong.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 45.6% y-o-y gain in September. It was a new record for the month of September by a margin of  20,000 transactions, the equivalent of a normal month of September with an entire month of December tacked on. Sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets on a year-over-year basis.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes declined by 10.2% in September, reversing the surge to record levels seen August. New supply was down in two-thirds of local markets, led by declines in and around Vancouver and the GTA.

With sales edging up in September and new supply dropping back, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 77.2% – the highest in almost 20 years and the third-highest monthly level on record for the measure.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about a third of all local markets were in balanced market territory, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other two-thirds of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

There were just 2.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of September 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, a number of Ontario markets are now into weeks of inventory rather than months. Much of the province of Ontario is close to or under one month of inventory.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.3% m-o-m in September 2020. Of the 39 markets now tracked by the index, all but two were up between August and September.

As buyers are moving further away from city centres, CREA added a large number of Ontario markets to the MLS® HPI this month. The list includes Bancroft and Area, Brantford Region, Cambridge, Grey Bruce Owen Sound, Huron Perth, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, the Lakelands (Muskoka-Haliburton-Orillia-Parry Sound), London & St. Thomas, Mississauga, North Bay, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Quinte & District, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 10.3% on a y-o-y basis in September – the biggest gain since August 2017. The largest y-o-y gains in the 22-23% range were recorded in Bancroft and Area, Quinte & District, Ottawa and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

This was followed by y-o-y price gains in the range of 15-20% in Barrie, Hamilton, Niagara, Guelph, Brantford, Cambridge, Grey Bruce-Owen Sound, Huron Perth, the Lakelands, London & St. Thomas, North Bay, Simcoe & District, Southern Georgian Bay, Tillsonburg District and Montreal.

Prices were up in the 10-15% range compared to last September in the GTA, Oakville-Milton, Kawartha Lakes, Kitchener-Waterloo, Mississauga, Northumberland Hills, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, and Greater Moncton.

Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were around 5% in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan Valley, Regina, Saskatoon and Quebec City. Gains were about half that in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, as well and in St. John’s, and prices were more or less flat y-o-y in Calgary and Edmonton.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price set another record in September 2020, topping the $600,000 mark for the first time ever at more than $604,000. This was up 17.5% from the same month last year.

Bottom Line

Housing strength is largely attributable to record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand by households that have maintained their level of income during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, and travel sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners.

The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in a video conference last week that further rate cuts remain an option in providing economic stimulus.

At present, the central bank’s policy rate is at a historic low of 0.25%.

“We are not actively discussing negative interest rates at this point but it’s in our toolkit, and never say never,” Macklem said.

The timing of the statement made perfect sense, according to Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Bank of Nova Scotia.

“He’s putting the concept back on the table if downside risks intensify,” Holt told Bloomberg via email.

This represented a softening in the governor’s stance. Upon taking the central bank’s helm earlier this year, Macklem said that sub-zero rates will significantly disrupt the Canadian financial system.

The possibility of negative rates was floated a few years back, when the bank was reviewing its options.

However, the policy steps taken so far to help the economy weather the pandemic have made the financial system more susceptible to future volatility, Macklem said.

“Without the fiscal and monetary policy actions, the economic devastation of the pandemic could have been much, much worse,” Macklem said. “[But] as much as a bold policy response was needed, it will inevitably make the economy and financial system more vulnerable to economic shocks down the road.”

Macklem said that the bank is keeping a close eye on the national credit environment, despite most Canadians having resumed regular payment schedules as banks’ mortgage deferral programs ended.

A potentially major failure point will be sufficiently large credit losses that will force banks to impose stricter controls on borrowing, Reuters reported.

“If this happens, our banking system would go from being a tailwind that supports recovery to being a headwind,” Macklem said.

The September Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Statistics Canada, reflects labour market conditions during the week of September 13 to 19, six months after the onset of the COVID-19 economic shutdown. As Canadian families adapted to new back-to-school routines at the beginning of September, public health restrictions had been substantially eased across the country, and many businesses and workplaces had re-opened. Throughout the month, some restrictions were re-imposed in response to increases in the number of COVID-19 cases. In British Columbia, new rules and guidelines related to bars and restaurants were implemented on September 8. In Ontario, limits on social gatherings were tightened for the hot spots of Toronto, Peel and Ottawa on September 17 and the rest of the province on September 19.

Employment gains unexpectedly accelerated in September, increasing by 378,200, more than double the consensus forecast on a broadly based pickup in hiring. This was the fifth consecutive month of job gains, which has now retraced three-quarters of the 3 million jobs lost during March and April. The unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in August to 9.0% in September. Most economists had expected a job gain of 150,000 and a jobless rate of 9.8%.

Another piece of good news is that most of the net new jobs were in full-time work. The number of Canadians who were employed but worked less than half their usual hours for reasons likely related to COVID-19 fell by 108,000 (-7.1%) in September.

September gains brought employment to within 720,000 (-3.7%) of its pre-COVID February level. The accommodation and food services (-188,000) and retail trade (-146,000) industries remained furthest from full recovery, while youth employment was 263,000 (-10.3%) below February levels.

Among Canadians who worked most of their usual hours, the proportion working from home edged down from August to September, from 26.4% to 25.6%.

Employment increased in every province except New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island in September, with the largest gains in Ontario and Quebec.

As a result of the COVID-19 economic shutdown, the unemployment rate more than doubled from 5.6% in February to a record high of 13.7% in May. The 9.0% jobless rate in September marks a rapid improvement.  By comparison, during the 2008/2009 recession, the unemployment rate rose from 6.2% in October 2008 to peak at 8.7% in June 2009. It then took approximately nine years to return to its pre-recession rate.

Employment in accommodation and food services rose by 72,000 (+7.4%) in September. This was the fifth consecutive monthly increase and brought total gains since the initial easing of COVID-19 restrictions in May to 427,000. Nevertheless, this industry’s employment was the furthest from recovery in September, down 15.3% (-188,000) from its pre-pandemic February level.

The accommodation and food services industry is likely to continue to face many challenges over the coming months. While outdoor dining is likely to become impractical during the winter months and as some COVID restrictions are re-introduced, a recent study indicated that Canadians plan to reduce spending at restaurants.

Following four months of increases, employment in retail trade held steady in September. Compared with February, employment in this industry was down by 146,000 (-6.4%). After increasing sharply in May and June, following the initial easing of COVID-19 restrictions, retail sales slowed markedly in July.

In construction, a long road to recovery remains.

Employment in construction remained little changed for the second consecutive month in September and was down by 120,000 (-8.1%) compared with its pre-COVID level. Compared with February, employment in construction was down the most in Ontario (-54,000; -9.5%) and British Columbia (-39,000; -16.3%).

Construction consists of three subsectors: construction of buildings, heavy and civil engineering construction, and specialty trade contractors. According to the latest results from the Survey of Employment Payrolls and Hours, employment in construction fell from February to July in each of these subsectors, with the largest decline among specialty trade contractors. The release of investment in building construction for July showed that investment in building construction was slightly lower in July than in February.

Manufacturing employment almost fully recovered, but lagging in Alberta.

While some industries face a long recovery to pre-COVID employment levels, some sectors—including manufacturing—have almost fully recovered.

The pace of employment growth in manufacturing picked up in September (+68,000; +4.1%), following two months of modest growth over the summer. The September gains brought the total employment change in this industry to a level similar to that of February. While employment in manufacturing remained well below pre-pandemic levels in Alberta (-17,000; -12.1%) and to a lesser extent in Quebec (-15,000; -3.1%), employment was above the pre-COVID level in Ontario (+17,000; +2.3%).

Employment in educational services rises in September and surpasses pre-COVID levels.

Employment in educational services grew by 68,000 (+5.0%) in September, led by Ontario and Quebec. After declining by 11.5% from February to April, employment in the industry has increased for five consecutive months and has reached a level 2.6% higher than in February.

As students returned to school in August and September, some jurisdictions increased staffing levels to support classroom adaptations. On a year-over-year basis, employment in educational services was up by 32,000 (+2.3%) in September, driven by an increase in elementary and secondary school teachers and educational counsellors (not seasonally adjusted).

Bottom Line

The labour market impact of the COVID-19 economic shutdown has been particularly severe for low-wage employees (defined as those who earned less than $16.03 per hour, or two-thirds of the 2019 annual median wage of $24.04/hour). From February to April, employment among low-wage employees fell by 38.1%, compared with a decline of 12.7% for all other paid employees (not seasonally adjusted).

Almost half of the year-over-year decline in low-wage employees in September was accounted for by three industries: retail trade; accommodation and food services; and business, building and other support services industries.

The pandemic has disproportionately hit low-wage workers and youth, explaining why housing activity has been so strong. Low-wage employees and youth are typically not homebuyers or sellers.

Moreover, the RBC COVID Consumer Spending Tracker for the week of October 5 shows that spending trends continued solid with few signs of second-wave worries impacting consumer confidence yet.

According to RBC:

• “Among retail categories, clothing spending continued to climb, returning to year-ago levels.
• Spending on apparel, gifts, and jewelry was up 1.5% relative to last year.
• Other retail categories held on to gains from the past few months.
• Despite plateauing in dollar terms, entertainment spending ticked up relative to last year.
• During the summer, high golf spending likely continued into early fall— rather than slowing down as it would have in a normal year.
• Slower spending on accommodation and car rentals accelerated a downward trend in travel-related purchases that have dominated in the last several weeks.
• Travel spending had recovered partially from pandemic lows; it was still down about 60% in peak summer. It worsened again as the weather cooled.
• Simultaneously, automotive spending fell slightly, in line with seasonal trends, as the summer road trip season came to an end.
• Labour Day saw the strongest restaurant spending since before the pandemic, but the uptick was fleeting.
• Spending on dining out quickly fell back to -6% relative to a year ago, a level it’s hovered around since July.”

Recently released data from the real estate boards in Toronto and Vancouver showed strong sales activity and significant further upward pressure on prices. In the GTA, a surge in new listings of high-rise condos meant that the upward pressure on home prices was driven by the ground-oriented market segments, including detached and semi-detached houses and townhouses. Home sales and new listing activity reached record levels in Metro Vancouver last month. The heightened demand from home buyers is keeping overall supply levels down. This is creating upward pressure on home prices, which have been edging up since the spring.

The CREA data for the whole country will be out on the 15th of October. This adjusts the price data for types of homes sold, giving us a better idea of how significant price pressures have been and in which sectors—more on that next week.

Prorogation on August 18, following the resignation of Finance Minister Morneau, a new session of Parliament, and a new speech from the throne was meant to allow the government to hit the reset button. And for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, to try and move past the summer of controversy involving WE Charity and the Canada Student Service Grant.

THE FISCAL PICTURE

There was little opposition earlier this year when the federal government backstopped nearly every economic sector through emergency benefits, wage subsidies, and other programs. But with the federal deficit approaching $400 billion, there are growing calls to temper new spending.

The new Finance Minister, Christia Freeland, has consulted with former prime minister Paul Martin, who erased deficits as finance minister more than 20 years ago. And she claimed this week to be “well aware” of concerns about federal spending and the fiscal balance but said getting more people back to work was a top priority, along with managing a second wave of COVID-19 infections.

“The single most important economic policy of our government and the best thing we can do for our economy is to keep coronavirus under control,” Freeland said. “I can’t emphasize that too much. Some people sometimes like to talk about a trade-off between good health policy and good economic policy. I could not disagree more strongly.”

Today’s throne speech is one of the most highly-anticipated throne speeches in recent memory–amid a slowing economic recovery and rising COVID case counts. Though not an economic blueprint, it lays out Ottawa’s vision for what policy supports it believes are needed to carry the country through the next phase of recovery.

Measures already floated include improved permanent support for the unemployed–building on exceptional levels of policy support delivered over the spring and summer. Estimates for how much all of that will cost will await a fall fiscal update and subsequent budget.

COVID-19 CASE COUNTS TICK HIGHER AS THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY SLOWS

A barrage of reports issued in the past week reinforced what will probably be a historically large, and yet still only partial, bounce-back in economic activity over the summer in Canada. Home resales surged again in August. Reports on retail, wholesale, and manufacturing trade for July left GDP still on track to rebound 40% (at an annualized rate) in the third quarter. But that would only retrace only about 57% of the decline over the first half of the year. And early data – including Royal Bank’s tracking of credit card purchases–continue to flag a slowing pace of recovery.

Meantime, virus case counts are being watched more closely again in Canada, given a faster uptick in recent weeks, particularly in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta. This latest wave of infections has been more concentrated among less vulnerable age cohorts, meaning fewer hospitalizations. Still, easing in containment measures has already been paused, and in some spots, reversed. At a minimum, the increased spread is another reminder that there are limits to how much the economy will recover while the virus threat remains.

In today’s speech from the throne, the Governor General was expected to lay out the government’s vision for the pandemic recovery. It won’t be easy, with COVID-19 cases on the rise and investor confidence wobbling. While the economy has improved since April lows, the recovery continues to be fragile–especially in the face of a possible second wave. Where should the government focus its investments? And if it survives the confidence vote, what could we expect in its next budget?

Trudeau insisted that he does not want a campaign soon — but would be ready if necessary. “I think it’s irresponsible to say that an election would be irresponsible,” Trudeau told reporters. “Our country and our institutions are stronger than that, and if there has to be an election, we’ll figure it out.”

“I don’t think that’s what Canadians want. I don’t think that’s what opposition parties want, and it’s certainly not what the government wants.”

A MATTER OF CONFIDENCE

Regardless of how many specifics or dollar figures are in the speech from the throne, it will be a confidence test for the Trudeau government, 15 seats shy of a majority in the House of Commons.

Without support from one major opposition party, an election is likely. But it’s not clear if that’s the kind of reset button opposition leaders are ready to press.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh wants a pledge to extend the Canada Emergency Response Benefit while the Employment Insurance system is reformed. And he wants a clear pledge to extend access to paid sick leave.

Singh told CPAC he heard no specific commitments from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when the two spoke last week. But he will be watching for signals from the government, not just in the speech itself, but in the debate and legislation that follows.

From new Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, recently given a positive COVID-19 diagnosis: “Let’s see the plan, and if it’s for the betterment of the country, we’ll support parts of that plan. If we don’t see it, we’ll put forward our own vision”.

The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, has threatened to try and force an election over the WE affair unless Trudeau steps down. And the party wants increased health care transfers to the provinces, more support for seniors, respect for Quebec jurisdictions, and support for supply-managed farmers.

But their leader will not be on Parliament Hill as the House of Commons resumes; Yves-François Blanchet has tested positive for COVID-19 and tweeted Tuesday that he and O’Toole would wait to give their formal replies to the speech until after their isolation periods had ended.

ACTUAL MEASURES IN THE THRONE SPEECH

Overcoming pandemic is the key theme of the speech. COVID-19 has been incredibly hard for parents, especially women, young people, older adults, and Black and racialized Canadians. Low wage earners have been hardest hit.

Fight the pandemic and save lives

• Faster testing, short-term closure orders in high-case areas
• Help businesses in those areas
• Additional PPE funding
• More funding to keep schools safe
• Vaccine strategy
• Immunity task force led by scientists

Supporting Canadians Through this Crisis

• Emergency Wage Subsidy extended
• Job loss supports
• Government creates jobs, assists training, youth employment strategy,
• CERB recipients now supported by EI system–broadened to include self-employed and gig workers
• Action Plan for women–child care services, create a Canada-wide early childhood education system, after school programs, support for women entrepreneurs.
• Aid to small businesses
• Improve business credit, assistance to sectors hardest hit

Build back better to create a more resilient Canada

• Stimulus for recovery that is done prudently
• Reduce income inequality by raising taxes stock options and wealth
• Increase taxes on the digital giants that do business in Canada
• Defend the strength of the middle class
• Fighting climate change and commitment to sustainable growth
• Long-term care homes assistance, new standards for care
• Increase Old Age Security at age 75
• Primary care physicians for every region
• Mental Health resources increased
• National Universal Pharmacare
• Telemedicine
• Limiting firearms
• National Action Plan on gender-based violence
• Affordable housing growth
• All Canadians have access to highspeed internet
• Affordable regional air services
• Eliminate chronic homelessness
• Enhance First-time homebuyer incentive
• Address food insecurity and enhance local food supply chains, protect food workers
• Support farmers
• Introduce the most extensive training and education and accreditation programs in Canadian history
• Create good jobs in climate action sectors
• Exceed Canada’s 2030 climate goals
• More transit options, zero-emissions vehicles and batteries, electric charging stations
• Cut corporate tax rate in half for clean technology companies
• Support natural resource and oil companies as they move towards zero-emission and clean-energy goals
• Ban single-use plastics next year
• Clean water and irrigation plans

Stand up for who we are as Canadians–welcoming and fights discrimination

• We take care of each other, welcome newcomers, embrace two official languages
• Address systemic racism
• Help Indigenous, First Nations, and Mate peoples
• Take action on online hate, support employment of Blacks and racialized people
• Reform criminal justice system and law enforcement
• Encourage immigration and family unification
• Invest more in developing economies
• Support human rights, bring detained Canadians home

BOTTOM LINE

This is an ambitious agenda. Many of these proposals are sweeping commitments. Spending details will come later, likely in a fiscal update in November or December.

The speech did not extend the CERB, which the NDP said was a condition of support. Also, the NDP asked for paid sick leave, which was not mentioned.

Quickly following the speech,  the Conservatives’ initial response was that they could not support this proposal. Among other things, they berated that there was no fiscal framework or anchor to prevent further downgrades of Canadian credit ratings. According to deputy leader Candice Bergen, Conservatives will not support a speech from the throne filled with “buzzwords” and “grand gestures” that ignores the ailing energy sector, farmers, the unemployed, and struggling small business owners.

The political posturing will continue.

In the next week, the speech will be debated, during which time, the government can make changes.

Today’s release of August housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed a blockbuster August with both sales and new listings hitting their highest levels in 40 years of data–exceeding the record July activity levels. This continues the rebound in housing that began four months ago.

National home sales rose a further 6.2% on a month-over-month (m-o-m) basis in August, raising them to another new all-time monthly record (see chart below).

Unlike the previous two months in which activity was up right across the country, sales in August were up in about 60% of local markets. Gains were led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland. With ongoing supply shortages in so many parts of Canada, it is interesting to note that the GTA and Lower Mainland also saw a considerable amount of new supply become available in August.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 33.5% y-o-y gain in August. It was a new record for the month of August, and the sixth-highest monthly sales figure of any month on record. Transactions were up compared to last August in almost all Canadian housing markets.

So far this year, over 340,000 homes have traded hands over the Canadian MLS Systems, which was up 0.8% from the same period in 2019 despite the COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession.

“It has been a record-setting summer in many housing markets across Canada as REALTORS® and their clients play catch up following the loss of so much of the 2020 spring market,” stated Costa Poulopoulos, Chair of CREA. “Many markets dealing with inventory shortages have been seeing fierce competition among buyers this summer; although, that was something that had been anticipated for 2020 prior to COVID-19. It really does seem that the spring market shifted into the summer”.

According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Activity shows signs of moderating in September”.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes posted a further 10.6% gain in August compared to July. New supply was up in close to three-quarters of local markets, led by gains in the Lower Mainland, GTA and Ottawa.

With the August increase in new supply outpacing the rise in sales for the first time since the rebound began in May, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 69.4% in August compared to 72.3% posted in July. That said, it was still among the highest levels on record for this measure.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about a third of all local markets were in balanced market territory, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other two-thirds of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between sales and the supply of listings. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were just 2.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of August 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, a number of Ontario markets are now into weeks of inventory rather than months. So supply constraints are still prevalent in many parts of the country, especially in Ontario.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.7% m-o-m in August 2020 (see chart and table below). This compares to a 2.3% m-o-m jump in July 2020 – the second largest increase on record (after March 2017) going back 15 years. Of the 21 markets currently tracked by the index, m-o-m gains were posted everywhere but Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 9.4% on a y-o-y basis in August – the biggest gain since late 2017.

The largest y-o-y gains were recorded in Ottawa (+19.9%) and Montreal (+16.4%), followed by increases in the 10% – 15% range in the GTA and surrounding Greater Golden Horseshoe markets. Moncton prices were also up in that range in August.

Prices were fairly flat on a y-o-y basis in Calgary, Edmonton and St. John’s, while climbing in the 3.5% – 5.5% range across B.C.

The MLS® HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because averages are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price set another record in August 2020 at more than $586,000, up 18.5% from the same month last yearBottom Line

CMHC forecasted back in May that the national average sales prices will fall 9%-to-18% in 2020 and not return to yearend-2019 levels until as late as 2022. Instead, the national average sales price as of August has posted a 18.5% gain.

Housing strength is largely attributable to pent-up demand by households that have maintained their level of income during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, and travel sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners.

The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity.   CMHC Annual Residential Mortgage Industry Report

The Residential Mortgage Industry report provides an in-depth view of the residential mortgage market in Canada: from mortgage origination to funding, covering insured and uninsured mortgages, and encompasses activity from all mortgage lender types. It is based on data available at the end of the second quarter of 2020. The following are key highlights:

Mortgage lender type trends

• The report shows that in 2019, Canada’s big six banks maintained their strong foothold in the housing finance market, with a 67% market share of newly extended mortgages (see chart below).
• Mortgage Finance Companies (MFCs) hold 20% of the insured mortgage space and credit unions stand at 12%.
• Mortgage delinquencies of 90 days or more remained at low levels for all mortgage lender types, which suggests that a steady share of mortgage holders continued to be able to make their payments or were able to defer their mortgage payments.
• MICs continued to represent 1% in nationwide outstanding mortgages, valued at approximately between $14 billion and $15 billion in mortgage debt.
• Some MICs offered mortgage deferrals and other types of accommodations to financially strained mortgage consumers. An estimated 10% of mortgage consumers asked for a mortgage deferral.

Mortgage Funding Trends

• Deposits continued to be the primary source of mortgage funding for the big six banks (66%) and credit unions (77%).
• Covered bonds made up 17% of total mortgage funding for Canada’s big six banks at the end of the first quarter of 2020, representing an increase of 4% from 2019.
• Private securitization continued to account for a very small share of the mortgage funding mix in Canada, with just 1.1%. However, the residential mortgage-backed securities market appears to be expanding.

As promised, the Bank held its target overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 25 basis points with the clear notion that negative policy rates are not in the cards. Instead, the central bank will rely on large-scale asset purchases–quantitative easing (QE–of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. QE adds liquidity to the financial system and keeps market yields low. The Bank began aggressive QE with the beginning of the pandemic and will not cease until the economy has recovered, and inflation is sustainably at 2%. This could be years away, as for example, Ontario has paused reopening plans with the virus numbers ticking up. Many public health officials are expecting infections to rise with the opening of schools and the turn to colder weather. The government is preparing for a possible second wave. Policymakers, however, have dialed back language on more aggressive action.

The Bank has stated, “Both the global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the scenario in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with activity bouncing back as countries lift containment measures. The Bank continues to expect this strong reopening phase to be followed by a protracted and uneven recuperation phase, which will be heavily reliant on policy support. The pace of the recovery remains highly dependent on the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the evolution of social distancing measures required to contain its spread.”

In Canada, real GDP fell by 11.5% (39% annualized) in the second quarter, resulting in a decline of just over 13% in the first half of the year, mainly in line with the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) central scenario. All components of aggregate demand weakened, as expected. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative. Although prices for some commodities have firmed, oil prices remain weak.

As the economy reopens, the bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July. Economic activity has been supported by government programs to replace incomes and subsidize wages. Core funding markets are functioning well, and this has led to a decline in the use of the Bank’s short-term liquidity programs. Monetary policy is working to support household spending and business investment by making borrowing more affordable.

Housing activity has been particularly robust with substantial existing home sales in July and August. With record-low mortgage rates, buyers are satisfying their demand for more space and for moving further from city-center congestion. This urban exodus is more than anecdotal. You can get more for your money, and with many people working from home, long commutes don’t seem to be as relevant. The chart below shows that the outer suburbs of Toronto have seen the most significant increase in sales since the market picked up in early June.

Also, the construction of new homes surged to the highest level in more than a decade in August following a sharp increase in July. The greatest strength was in Toronto and Vancouver, particularly in multiple units.

Household spending rebounded sharply over the summer, with stronger-than-expected goods consumption and housing activity. There has also been a large but uneven rebound in employment. Exports are recovering in response to strengthening foreign demand, but are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Business confidence and investment remain subdued. While recent data during the reopening phase is encouraging, the Bank continues to expect the recuperation phase to be slow and choppy as the economy copes with ongoing uncertainty and structural challenges.

CPI inflation is close to zero, with downward pressure from energy prices and travel services, and is expected to remain well below target in the near term. Measures of core inflation are between 1.3% and 1.9%, reflecting the large degree of economic slack, with the core measure most influenced by services prices showing the weakest growth.

Bottom Line

The Bank also suggested that “as the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at the current pace. This QE program will continue until the recovery is well underway and will be calibrated to provide the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective”.

The next policy meeting will be held on October 28 when the Bank will release its new forecast in the MPR. A rate hike is unlikely this year or in 2021.

There were no surprises this morning from Governor Macklem’s virtual presentation to the Canadian Clubs of Canada. His opening written statement was quite brief and it was followed up with a Q and A. Here are the key points that he emphasized.

• Negative interest rates are off the table as they “lead to distortions in the behaviour of financial markets.”
• Therefore, no additional Bank of Canada rate cuts is coming.
• The BoC will continue its securities purchase program to provide liquidity to financial markets.
• In response to questions, he said he expects lasting damage to demand and supply in the economy. He said the recovery will be “long and bumpy” and “slow and gradual”.
• The inflation target of 2% will remain the beacon for BoC policy. Currently, inflation is below target.
• “This recession is a deep one. Women have been particularly hard hit because they work disproportionately in the hard-hit service sector and women are disproportionately caring for children and the elderly”.
• Fiscal support programs lay the foundation for the recovery of particular groups.
• Oil-producing regions are hard hit by the oil price shock. The price of oil has moved up recently to WTI $40, but the pandemic clearly “weakens oil demand”.
• Household debt levels are a concern. Fiscal transfers help and households have reduced their spending. The role of the BoC is to provide the required stimulus to encourage households to spend. The macroprudential measures already in place will discourage highly indebted households from taking on more debt.
• He expects “pretty good growth in jobs and GDP in Q3”. Beyond that is more uncertain as we will need to repair the economy.
• All institutions must speed up actions to deal with climate change, including the BoC. We will need to get a handle on the implications of this for the economy.
• Chartered banks are more conservative in their lending practices since the pandemic hit. The securities-purchase programs are intended to keep credit flowing from the banks. The banks are an important shock absorber during this recession. Conditions in financial markets are much improved since the beginning of the crisis. “Markets have normalized and credit is flowing more freely”.
• Both the government and the BoC have introduced extraordinary programs to deal with this crisis. He said, however, that we could use “additional international assistance and cooperation”.
• Real estate question–How much risk does this sector represent? The Governor commented that different sectors will behave differently Warehouse and fulfillment centre demand is quite strong. Commercial real estate outlook is uncertain– particularly office space and shopping malls. Housing–he commented that “sharp drops in housing activity” has led to “little change in prices” thus far. This will vary by region and type of housing in the future.
• “The pace of change is accelerating. Societies around the world are having trouble keeping up. The central bank must get ahead of this” and be prepared for the unknowns, be agile and resolute.
• Asked about the potential for a second wave of a pandemic, he said, “The outlook is fraught with uncertainty. The biggest uncertainty is the course of the virus. There will be increases in the number of cases. We need testing and tracing with quick responses locally. We need to determine how to open up safely.”
• When asked for his last word, he said, “We are going to get through this. Canadians are resourceful, business ingenuity is strong, this will be a long slow recovery and there will be setbacks. We have avoided the worst scenario. Not all jobs will come back. The Bank is laser-focused on supporting this recovery and getting Canadians back to work”.

None of us has any experience in dealing with a medical emergency that has become an economic crisis, and none of us knows how long this will last or how the end game will play out. I think we all can agree that this is a dilemma like no other, freighted with profound uncertainty.

Economic theory and econometric modelling do not provide a specific roadmap. Unlike previous postwar recessions, today’s is not an endogenous shock triggered by huge imbalances.

To be sure, medical considerations should outweigh economic ones. The job of policymakers is to mitigate the financial burdens caused by doing the right things on the medical side.

How do we navigate the coming months? In my opinion, this is a question to be answered first by medical experts. To assess the next steps from an economic policy perspective, the government should explain its view on the likelihood of a vaccine and antivirals over a six-month, one-year and three-year time frame.

A sober assessment of the outlook for Canadian growth suggests that while the second quarter might be the bottom of the cycle, the economy will only crawl back to full employment. Those hardest hit will be those that can least afford unemployment. Small businesses, which account for more than 40% of private-sector jobs, are by now hard hit, and in many cases, might have already received a death blow. Undeniably, some of these lost jobs are gone for good.

The hope is the waves of stimulus doled out by the government, and the Bank of Canada will eventually bolster the economy and spark a revival in hiring.

The risk, though, is that the pandemic is inflicting a “reallocation shock”[1] in which some firms and even entire sectors suffer lasting damage. Lost jobs in these sectors don’t come back, and unemployment remains elevated. Traditional fiscal stimulus does not address this kind of shock.

An estimated 30% of job losses from February to May could be the result of this permanent reallocation shock. The labour market will initially recover swiftly, as we saw in the May data, but then level off with too many people still unemployed.

Workers in the hospitality industry—accommodation and food—are among the most at risk, alongside inessential retail, leisure, travel and education. Most of these people cannot work from home.

In many cases, the pandemic has increased the challenge of bricks and mortar companies facing off against e-commerce platforms such as Amazon, accelerating a pre-crisis trend in which Canadian companies have woefully underperformed.

The unique shock of the virus means governments may need to do more to support businesses and protect workers than they would in a typical recession. This puts the government under pressure to craft policies that help viable cash-strapped firms to survive and displaced workers to navigate to different jobs, but which ideally do not prop up companies that are no longer sustainable.  We have already seen evidence[2] that shows that high COVID-unemployment benefits can encourage layoffs, discourage work and delay productive reallocation.

We need to know the proportion of  Canada’s job losses that come from lockdown and weak demand. Those will diminish quickly in response to stimulus and reopening. The part generated by high unemployment benefits encouraging workers to stay home requires a gradual reduction in income support. The most intractable group of unemployed suffer the permanent fallout of the reallocation shock.

For them, the government should provide the training that gets workers ready for the next phase of the technology revolution.

The pandemic has accelerated structural shifts that will remain. The efficient response to these shifts requires–among other things–widespread enhanced broadband and computer access for all households, reduced government land-use restrictions and occupational licensing restraints, the removal of regulatory barriers to business formation and interprovincial trade restrictions.

These fault lines were there before the virus, but they are now exposed and need a new social contract between government and its citizens.

[1] Working Paper No. 2020-59, “COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock, Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, and Steven J. Davis (May 5, 2020), https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_WP_202059.pdf “…the potential for customer (and employee) concerns about infectious disease transmission to alter retail formats, restaurant designs, and the delivery of many medical, professional, personal and business services suggest that the reallocative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to play out for many months and years to come.” p. 18.

[2] Ibid, p. 20 “When Equinox had to start furloughing some employees at its chain of upscale fitness clubs, Executive Chairman Harvey Spevak had a surprising message to stakeholders. ‘We believe most will be better off receiving government assistance during our closure’.” This passage is from Thomas and Cutter (2020), who also write: “Equinox joins a number of companies, including Macy’s … and [furniture maker] Steelcase …that are citing the federal government’s beefed-up unemployment benefits as they furlough or lay off staff amid the coronavirus pandemic. The stimulus package is changing the calculus for some employers, which can now cut payroll costs without feeling they are abandoning their employees.”