Whether buying or selling a home, the process entails reviewing, signing, and organizing a vast array of documents. Real estate transactions can be huge commitments with a lot of money on the line, so you likely have enough stress to worry about without all the paperwork dominating your life. You might find, though, that efficiently managing your contracts, bills, and insurance records will empower you to approach the transaction with greater clarity of mind. By learning a few methods for organizing paperwork, the home buying or selling process can go much smoother.

1. Organize Documents by Type and Date

Experts explain that file management is important because it allows you to quickly find important documents in a centralized location. Having a system in place also reduces the risk of filing errors, which can save you precious time searching for documents that get stored incorrectly.

Proper labeling is the basis of any good file management system. Start by designating folders for certain types of documents, such as insurance records or mortgage statements. Within each individual folder, sort documents by date so you can easily browse through and find what you need. 

2. Be Consistent When Naming Files and Folders

Keep in mind that during a real estate transaction, you might need to dig up records that are at least several years old. This illustrates the importance of being consistent with how you name your files and folders, as you might not otherwise remember where you stored certain documents.

As one example of this, you might choose to consistently include the year in each folder’s label. Additionally, you might commit to using tabs within your folders to mark off groups of documents by month. These consistent naming principles can also be highly effective if you choose to digitize your records. 

3. Digitize Your Documents

Choosing to organize your documents digitally is a great way to ensure that you always have access to your files. After using a scanner or mobile scanning app to digitize your records, you can keep copies on your computer hard drive and in the cloud for remote access from any of your devices.

To keep your digital records even tidier, consider using a PDF extractor tool. With this, it is possible to extract many individual pages into one larger PDF file. By doing so, you can keep all related records stored in one convenient file.

4. Research Mortgages Ahead of Time

When buying a home, it is very important to consider your mortgage options. Applying for a mortgage means taking on even more paperwork, so it is a good idea to start the process early so as to avoid disrupting your organization system later on.

Lenders will review your credit score, income, and your requested borrowing amount when you apply for a mortgage. These factors will affect the interest rate you will pay on the loan, which should inform how much you can afford when conducting your house hunt.

When you’re ready to find an affordable mortgage with a lender you can trust, reach out to Dominion Lending Centres.

While conducting proper mortgage research and organizing digital documents can relieve a lot of stress, the last thing you need is an additional layer of stress and complication on top of your existing paperwork load. By keeping your documents organized and managing your paperwork, the process will go much smoother.

Purchasing your first home is one of the most exciting things you’ll do in your life. It requires big changes and important considerations, one of which is whether or not you should buy a starter home or a forever home first. This brief guide presented by John Dunford, MBA of Dominion Lending Centres can help you understand the difference between the two and figure out what works best for you.

What Is a Starter Home?

Some characteristics of a starter home include less space and features with greater mass appeal. Most people purchase a starter home intending to stay no longer than five years. It may not have everything you want or need in your home, but it is a great place to start. If you consider buying a house “as is,” be prepared to face many possible issues. Consult with a lawyer before signing an agreement and have the property inspected. Additionally, check the land records for red flags, such as missing documents or multiple recent transfers of the property.

What Are the Pros and Cons of a Starter Home?

The pros of purchasing a starter home first primarily center around financials. For example, you can typically find funding more easily because starter homes are smaller and more affordable. They also require less maintenance and renovation and provide you with the possibility of future income. When you decide to move on to your forever home, you can turn the starter home into a rental property for extra income or sell it for capital you can use to purchase your new home.

Cons include having less space should your needs change while you live there. It may also have more repairs if you purchased it “as is” or bought an older home. Additionally, you may have a difficult time selling it unless you choose to buy in a great location.

What Is a Forever Home?

A forever home is often larger and more customized than a starter home. Buyers looking for a forever home make plans to create a space to accommodate family growth and personal needs. Mass appeal is not a concern because the buyer intends to stay in the home permanently.

What Are the Pros and Cons of a Forever Home?

The most significant pro of buying your forever home first is that you can personalize it to make it perfectly suit your needs. It also allows you to put down roots and eliminates the need to move again. Because forever homes are larger, you can grow your family or even start an at-home business and have plenty of room.

Cons include a more costly purchase and more money spent on upkeep and repairs. Additionally, more buyers immediately do major renovations to make their forever home reflect personal tastes. Should you need to sell, a custom home typically doesn’t attract as many buyers.

When Do You Start Planning Your Move?

Research shows that starting the packing process at least eight weeks prior to moving day eliminates stress and helps you stay more organized. If you did wait until the last minute, consider hiring a moving company with full-service offers. You can connect with local movers online, read reviews, and get quotes.

As you think about the right move for you, remember there is no wrong answer. Choosing between a starter home and a forever home is about personal preference and your financial situation. Keep in mind that even a forever home doesn’t have to be permanent.

The Bank of Canada is seeing “worrying” signs that some Canadians are taking on too much debt to buy into the nation’s hot housing market.

In an interview with the Financial Post, Governor Tiff Macklem said there is evidence that loan levels relative to home values are growing — an indication that some borrowers could be overextending. He also warned people have begun to make purchases based on the belief prices will continue rising.

“Canadians are stretching and that is worrying.” Macklem said. “If Canadians are basing their decisions on the kinds of price increases that we’ve seen recently are going to continue indefinitely, that would be a mistake. They’re not sustainable.”

At the same time, Macklem indicated the central bank can do little given interest rates need to stay low to support the recovery.

His comments come amid increasingly urgent calls from economists for policy makers to cool the market. Over the past week, the Bank of Montreal’s Robert Kavcic and Robert Hogue at Royal Bank of Canada have issued reports warning officials they need to take steps to break the psychology of expecting continued gains in real estate. The ultimate concern is that rapid price appreciation could be destabilizing.

Among policies being suggested are taxes targeting speculators like the one implemented in New Zealand this month, or an end to the longstanding and popular tax exemption for capital gains on primary residences. Another idea getting attention is the elimination of blind bidding for homes that some analysts say unnecessarily inflates prices.

Both Kavcic and Hogue also identified a lack of housing supply as a major driver of the recent run up in home values.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government plans to introduce a tax on foreign non-resident home owners. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said last week she is watching the market closely, without detailing any specific intent to take additional action.

Last week, Canada’s national housing agency added three more cities to its list of markets highly vulnerable to a sharp price drop, including Toronto. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. also said the recent broad-based price appreciation means overheating risks are now a national phenomenon, rather than isolated to a few major metropolitan areas.

The Bank of Canada, this morning, released its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), showing they expect to keep overnight interest rates at its “effective lower bound” of 0.25% until 2023 (see chart below). To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its Quantitative Easing (QE) program–buying $4 billion of Government of Canada bonds every week until the recovery is well underway. The central bank indicated it could pare purchases once the recovery regains its footing.

According to the Bank’s press release, “The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our projection, this does not happen until into 2023.” Officials are apparently optimistic about the economy’s prospects once the vaccine is sufficiently distributed and injected. There is no indication that they are planning additional measures to ease monetary policy.

This is particularly noteworthy for two reasons: 1) some economists had been speculating that the Bank would lower the overnight rate by 10-to-15 basis points to help mitigate the impact of continued and broadening lockdowns; and, 2) others thought the early development of the vaccine would trigger sufficient growth to warrant a rate hike in 2022. In the Bank’s current view, neither is likely to be the case. Why mess with a minute cut in already record-low interest rates when mortgage lending is still strong? The slow rollout of the vaccine and the mounting second wave of cases assure weak economic activity in Canada at least until the second half of this year.

As well, inflation remains surprisingly muted. In a separate release today, Stats Canada revealed that price pressures in Canada unexpectedly slowed in December as the country endured a new wave of lockdowns. After climbing to the highest since the pandemic in November, the latest reading shows price pressures are still well below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. That’s consistent with the view from policymakers that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

The pandemic’s second wave has hit Canada very hard, and the vaccine rollout has been disappointing (see chart below). Today’s MPR predicts that the economy will contract in the first quarter of this year. Economic weakness could be exacerbated by the Canadian dollar’s strength, which moved to above 79 cents US following today’s BoC announcement. Ten-year yields edged up modestly as well.

Bottom Line

For the year as a whole, economic growth is expected to be around 4% in 2021, compared to a contraction of -5.5% last year. As the inoculated population grows, the Bank forecasts an acceleration in growth to just under 5% in 2022 and a more-normal 2.5% in 2023. According to the January MPR, “The medium-term outlook is stronger than in the October Report because of vaccines’ positive effects, greater fiscal stimulus, stronger foreign demand and higher commodity prices. Meanwhile, potential output has also been revised up, reflecting an improved projection for business investment and less scarring effects on businesses and workers. There is considerable uncertainty around the medium-term outlook for GDP and the path for potential output. Thus, while the output gap is expected to close in 2023, the timing is particularly uncertain.”

Concerning housing activity, the report said, “Demand for housing has continued to show resilience, despite increasing case numbers and tightening restrictions. Housing activity should remain elevated into the start of 2021, supported by low borrowing rates and resilient disposable incomes. Changes in homebuyers’ preferences have also played a role. For example, price growth has been strongest for single-family homes and in areas outside city centres.”

Despite the fears leading into the pandemic last Spring, 2020 marked a record number of home resales as new listings lagged and prices climbed. December housing data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today shows national home sales surged 7.2% month-over-month (m-o-m) at a time of the year when housing is normally slow. The chart below shows that resales were impressively above their 10-year average. The seasonally adjusted activity was running at an annualized 714,516-unit pace in December 2020 – the first time on record that monthly sales (at seasonally adjusted annual rates) have ever topped the 700,000 mark.  It was a new record for December by a margin of more than 12,000 transactions. For the sixth straight month, sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets compared to the same month in 2019.

The increase in national sales activity from November to December was driven by gains of more than 20% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Vancouver.

On a year-over-year basis (y-o-y), activity rocketed upward by 47.2% as interest rates hit record lows, housing needs changed owing to the pandemic, and supply was insufficient to meet demand. The housing boom occurred despite the fall in population growth, reflecting the dearth of new immigration. The yearly change in population growth in Canada nosedived in 2020 after climbing powerfully in the prior four years. Despite this headwind, for 2020 as a whole, 551,392 homes traded hands over Canadian MLS® Systems – a new annual record. This is an increase of 12.6% from 2019 and stood 2.3% above the previous record set in 2016.

New Listings

“The stat to watch in 2021 will be new listings, particularly in the spring – how many existing owners will put their homes up for sale?” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “We already have record-setting sales, but we know demand is much stronger than those numbers suggest because we see can see it impacting prices. On New Year’s Day, there were fewer than 100,000 residential listings on all Canadian MLS® Systems, the lowest ever based on records going back three decades. Compare that to five years ago, when there was a quarter of a million listings available for sale. So we have record-high demand and record-low supply to start the year. How that plays out in the sales and price data will depend on how many homes become available to buy in the months ahead. Ideally, we’d like for households to be able to find and acquire the homes that best suit their needs and for housing to remain affordable, but the fact is we’re facing a major supply problem in 2021.”

The number of newly listed homes climbed by 3.4% in December, led by more new listings in the GTA and B.C. Lower Mainland, the same parts of Canada that saw the biggest sales gains in December.

With sales up by more than new supply in December, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 77.4% – among the highest levels on record for the measure. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.2%.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, only about 30% of all local markets were in balanced market territory in December, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other 70% of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

There were just 2.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, 29 Ontario markets were under one month of inventory at the end of December.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1.5% m-o-m in December 2020. Of the 40 markets now tracked by the index, only one was down between November and December.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 13% on a y-o-y basis in December – the biggest gain since June 2017 (see chart below).

Home price activity largely reflected the desire of home purchasers to move away from city centres to a greener, less-expensive suburbs and exurbs now that telecommuting appears to be a sustainable option, at least part-time.

The largest y-o-y gains – above 30% – were recorded in Quinte & District, Simcoe & District, Woodstock-Ingersoll and the Lakelands region of the Ontario cottage country (see the table below for details).

Y-o-y price increases in the 25-30% range were seen in Bancroft and Area, Grey Bruce Owen Sound, Kawartha Lakes, North Bay, Northumberland Hills and Tillsonburg District.

This was followed by y-o-y price gains in the range of 20-25% in Barrie, Hamilton, Niagara, Brantford, Cambridge, Huron Perth, Kitchener-Waterloo, London & St. Thomas, Southern Georgian Bay and Ottawa.

Prices were up in the 15-20% range compared to last December in Oakville-Milton, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Montreal and Greater Moncton.

Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were in the 10-15% range in the GTA and Mississauga, Quebec City, and the 5-10% range across B.C., and in Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and St. John’s NL.

Alberta still lagged owing to the still-negative oil market scene, where home prices were up only 1.5% and 2.7% in Calgary and Edmonton, respectively.

The MLS® HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because averages are strongly distorted by changes in sales activity mix from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was a record $607,280 in December 2020, up 17.1% from the same month last year.

Bottom Line

Housing strength is largely attributable to record-low mortgage rates and strong demand for more spacious accommodation by households that have maintained their income level during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, non-essential retail and tourism-related sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners.

We end 2020 with the national average home price up 17.1%–a dramatic surge rather than the 9-18% decline forecast by CMHC last March. Moreover, 2021 is likely to be another strong year for housing.  It would not surprise me if annual sales reached a new high in 2021, especially in the first half of the year. There will, however, be cooling signs as the year progresses and especially into 2022. Firstly, supply constraints are a major factor as new listings remain low relative to demand. As well, the pandemic-induced changes in housing needs will have a waning effect over time. As vaccine injections rise across the country and we return to a new normal, interest rates will creep up moderately. This along with higher home prices will slow the pace of activity as affordability erodes.

There will be mitigating factors in 2022: the number of new immigrants is slated to rise to roughly 500,000 that year and demand for short-term Airbnb rentals will rise sharply as tourism revives.

Despite the good news on the vaccine front since the Governing Council’s last meeting in late October, the Bank of Canada reasserted its commitment to provide extraordinary monetary policy support for many months to come. The statement released today reiterated that the Bank will hold the policy interest rate at its effective lower bound of 0.25% “until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.”  Although inflation in October picked up, it was mainly because of higher prices for fresh fruits and vegetables. The Bank’s policy statement said that measures of core inflation are all below 2%, and “considerable economic slack is expected to continue to weigh on inflation for some time.”  The economy will continue to require this stimulus until 2023–as stated in the most recent (October) Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

The central bank will reassess the outlook when it meets again on January 20 when it releases the next full update of its outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the January MPR.

Despite the good news regarding the vaccine, other recent developments weigh heavily on the economy. Canada has been hard hit by the second wave in Covid cases (see chart below). The daily number of cases have averaged just over 6,000 in the past week. According to the Public Health Agency of Canada, Covid-19 cases are on pace to exceed 20,000 a day at the current rate of spread. Provinces all over the country have imposed aggressive new restrictions to slow the spread of the virus.

New lockdown measures are having a crippling effect on non-essential retailers and restaurants during the all-important holiday season. The government announced aggressive fiscal policy measures last week to cushion the blow on businesses and households. Indeed, among all the G7 countries, Canada’s fiscal response has been the most aggressive.

As well, according to Bloomberg News, Canada has reserved more vaccine doses per person than anywhere, as PM Trudeau has accelerated plans to start giving shots.  “The first Canadians will be vaccinated next week if we have approval from Health Canada this week,” Trudeau told reporters in Ottawa. “This will move us forward on our whole timeline of vaccine roll out and is a positive development in getting Canadians protected as soon as possible.”

The Canadian dollar has also risen to a two-year high of over 78 cents US, which the Bank says is in large measure a reflection of broadly based US dollar weakness.

Quantitative Easing Continues

Another potential drag on the Canadian economy is the rise in market rates of interest triggered by the welcome news of a successful vaccine. The Bank of Canada is responding by purchasing at least $4 billion a week in longer-term Government of Canada bonds. For example, the GoC 5-year yield has risen from a low of 31 basis points in the past six months to a current level of just under 50 basis points. No doubt, quantitative easing has dampened the upward trend and will continue to do so.

If the Bank decides that additional monetary support is needed in January, it is more likely to come via a boost to GoC bond purchases than an adjustment in the overnight rate.

In his testimony before the House of Commons finance committee on Nov. 26, Governor Tiff Macklem acknowledged market distortions could occur once the bank’s share of government bond holdings grows beyond 50%. As shown in the chart below, the Bank currently holds about 34% of the market, and if buying continues apace,  CIBC economists estimate the Bank would own 48% by the end of 2021.

Bottom Line: Interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The pandemic will largely determine the growth of the economy and the government’s response. Experts suggest that the second wave will last through the winter and that a widely dispersed vaccine will not be available until the second half of 2021.

In today’s policy announcement, the Bank of Canada stood by its pledge to hold its key overnight interest rate at 0.25%.

“The rebound in the global and Canadian economies has unfolded largely as the Bank had anticipated in its October Monetary Policy Report,” the bank said. “More recently, news on the development of effective vaccines is providing reassurance that the pandemic will end and more normal activities will resume, although the pace and breadth of the global rollout of vaccinations remain uncertain.”

As new waves of COVID-19 infections are likely to take place, the bank’s accommodative policy is expected to continue improving financial conditions and providing support across most regions.

“Stronger demand is pushing up prices for most commodities, including oil,” the banks said. “A broad-based decline in the US exchange rate has contributed to a further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.”

Economists have predicted that the BoC will freeze the rate at its effective lower bound of 0.25% for at least two years. The central bank is also likely to continue its bond purchasing program at its current pace of $4 billion per week.

“The Canadian economy’s recovery from the pandemic crisis will be a drawn-out and patchy process that requires exceptional monetary support from ultra-low interest rates and unprecedented use of quantitative easing for some time to come,” said Angelo Melino, professor at the University of Toronto.

“We think fears that excessive monetary stimulus will stoke higher inflation are misplaced and expect inflation will remain subdued, with a greater risk of deflation due to weak aggregate demand and slack in the economy,” said Tony Stillo, director of economics for Canada at Oxford Economics.

The bank said that its next scheduled overnight rate announcement will be on January 20, 2021.

Justin Trudeau’s government, which has delivered the biggest COVID-19 fiscal response in the industrialized world, announced plans for another dose of stimulus and vowed to continue priming the pump as long as needed.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland unveiled $51.7 billion of new spending over two years in a mini-budget Monday, led by an enhanced wages subsidy for business. Freeland also pledged, without detailing, another $70 billion to $100 billion of additional stimulus over three years to spur the recovery.

But the finance minister clearly heeded calls for fiscal prudence. She put off any major structural spending announcements, promised any additional stimulus will be temporary and introduced new taxes on digital giants including Netflix, Amazon, and Airbnb, to help pay for it all.

“Our government will make carefully judged, targeted and meaningful investments to create jobs and boost growth,” Freeland said. It will provide “the fiscal support the Canadian economy needs to operate at its full capacity and to stop COVID-19 from doing long-term damage to our economic potential.”

Freeland revised higher the nation’s projected deficit this year to $381.6 billion, or 17.5% of GDP. That’s up from a deficit of 1.7% of GDP last year. According to estimates from the International Monetary Fund, no major economy will show a bigger fiscal swing in 2020.

The budgetary red ink is projected at $121 billion next year, before any additional stimulus. In total, spending linked to the government’s COVID response accounted for C$75 billion of this year’s deficit, and C$51 billion next year.

Based on Monday’s projections, the deficit is seen gradually narrowing to about $51 billion in two years and $25 billion by 2025.

The planned stimulus over the next three years will total no more than 4% of GDP, which the document said is in line with the Bank of Canada’s estimate of the level of slack in the economy. Freeland said, “fiscal guardrails” tied to the labour market would help determine the extent of the additional stimulus.

Among the measures announced today, Freeland boosted the government’s wage subsidy program (Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy, CEWS) to cover as much as 75% of payroll costs for businesses and extended its commercial rent subsidy and lockdown support top-ups until March. Both were slated to run out on December 20. The current cap on CEWS was 65%.

The federal government plans to create a new funding program to help restaurants, tourism companies and other businesses in industries hardest hit by COVID-19.

The Highly Affected Sectors Credit Availability Program (HASCAP), which was announced in the government’s fiscal update Monday, will offer eligible businesses loans of up to $1 million, with a 10-year term.

The money will be lent by banks or other financial institutions, but guaranteed by the federal government.

“We know that businesses in tourism, hospitality, travel, arts and culture have been particularly hard-hit. So we’re creating a new stream of support for those businesses that need it most — a credit availability program with 100-per-cent government-backed loan support and favourable terms for businesses that have lost revenue as people stay home to fight the spread of the virus,” Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said in her prepared speech to the House of Commons.

Establishing a national childcare plan is a key long-term goal, with Freeland vowing a detailed plan in next year’s budget. In her forward to the fiscal update, she described the daycare strategy as “a feminist plan” that also “makes sound business sense.”

As a start, the Liberals are proposing in their fiscal update to spend $420 million in grants and bursaries to help provinces and territories train and retain qualified early childhood educators.

The Liberals are also proposing to spend $20 million over five years to build a child-care secretariat to guide federal policy work, plus $15 million in ongoing spending for a similar Indigenous-focused body.

The money is designed to lay the foundation for what will likely be a big-money promise in the coming budget.

Current federal spending on child care expires near the end of the decade, but the Liberals are proposing now to keep the money flowing, starting with $870 million a year in 2028.

There is also money for action on climate change. The government allocated C$2.6 billion in grants for homeowners to improve efficiency and $150 million over three years for electric vehicle charging stations.

The government also detailed some help for the hard-hit tourism sector, including funding for airports. But with Transport Minister Marc Garneau’s negotiations with airlines underway, there is no specific money for carriers including Air Canada and WestJet Airlines Ltd.

Bottom Line

There will continue to be great concern about the largest budget deficits since World War II. Does Canada really need the proportionately largest COVID fiscal response in the industrialized world?  The outlook is somewhat less dire than when the government released a fiscal snapshot in July. The unemployment rate at 8.9% is down materially from May’s 13.7% high but well above February’s 5.6%. The economy recovered ground through the third quarter, although the second wave of pandemic and ensuing restrictions undoubtedly will topple economic activity this quarter.

There is little worry that the government can sustain a massive deficit this year. It can, given low debt levels entering the crisis and historically low interest rates. But now that it has no fiscal guardrails, there’s a risk debt-to-GDP will continue to rise in the medium term if it continues to spend ambitiously.

The government is adding a new revenue source by taxing large digital companies. Still, in time, with this level of spending, they will be tempted to raise taxes on domestic sources, for example, hikes in the GST and higher capital gains taxes. This would be misguided, given the fragility of the recovery.

There is a greater risk that the government is overdoing the stimulus with vaccines on the horizon than undergoing it. Canada’s programs have been generous and household-focused compared to our G7 peers. The government must be strategic in assuring that new program spending is focused on future growth, beyond the pandemic, so that our debt-to-GDP will resume its downward trend. The risk is that once created; it is difficult to rein in spending.

Today’s release of October housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) shows national home sales fell 0.7% month-over-month (m-o-m) from September’s record high (see chart below). This is the first decline in five months, as market conditions remained tight and prices continued to rise. Competition remains intense in the detached-home market and townhouses, but condo apartment sales have slowed as new listings surge, especially in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

The small change from September to October reflected gains in about half of all local markets offset by declines in the other half. Among the larger markets, activity was up in Montreal, the Fraser Valley, Calgary and Edmonton. By contrast, sales fell back in the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Ottawa and Greater Vancouver.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 32.1% y-o-y gain in October. It was a new record for that month by a margin of more than 14,000 transactions. For the fourth straight month, sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets compared to the same month in 2019. Among the few markets that were down on a year-over-year basis, it is possible for the handful that is in Ontario simply do not have the supply at the moment.

This year, some 461,818 homes have traded hands over Canadian MLS® Systems, up 8.6% from the first 10 months of 2019. In fact, it was the second-highest January-October sales figure on record, trailing only 2016. It is possible that 2020 could prove itself to be a record year for housing activity–certainly in opposition to what many thought when the pandemic hit in March. There is no doubt that COVID-19 has caused many households to uproot and change homes based on their altered lifestyle and working situation. Much of this activity would not have happened had the pandemic not struck.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes climbed 2.9% in October. The overall gain in new supply in October was driven by more new listings in the GTA, B.C.’s Lower Mainland and Ottawa. As with sales activity, actual (not seasonally adjusted), new listings set a new record for October; however, it was by far less of a margin than sales. Meaning market conditions are still very tight in many parts of the country.

The Toronto Real Estate Board reported that the pace of annual sales growth far outstripped growth in new listings in the detached market segment. Conversely, the condominium apartment market segment experienced more than double the new listings than in October 2019, whereas sales were only up by 2.2% over the same period (see chart below).

“Competition between buyers of single-family homes, and particularly detached houses, remained strong last month and continued to support double-digit annual rates of price growth in many GTA neighbourhoods. In contrast, condo buyers have benefitted from much more choice compared to last year. Pre-COVID polling had already pointed to an increase in investor selling in 2020. The pandemic only added to this trend with a stall in economic growth and a halt to tourism impacting cashflows for many investors,” said Lisa Patel, TRREB’s President.

The dearth of tourists has devastated the short-term rental condo market, many of which are listed on Airbnb. And a dramatic decline in immigration hurt the long-term condo rental space. Rents overall have fallen in the GTA, and many investors are trying to sell. As well, many buyers of yet-to-be-delivered new condos are trying to flip their contracts. The federal government initiatives to increase immigration in 2021, if successful, will help remediate this situation. Still, tourism will not open back up until a vaccine is widely distributed around the world. There has been some good news on that front.

With new supply up in October and sales relatively little changed, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 74.3% – still among the highest levels on record for the measure. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.1%.

Based on a comparison of sales-to-new listings ratio with long-term averages, about a third of all local markets were in balanced market territory in October, measured as being within one standard deviation of their long-term average. The other two-thirds of markets were above long-term norms, in many cases well above.

There were just 2.5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of October 2020 – the lowest reading on record for this measure. At the local market level, some 18 Ontario markets were under one month of inventory at the end of October.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose by 1% m-o-m in October 2020. Of the 39 markets now tracked by the index, all but one were up between September and October (see table 1 below).

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 10.9% on a y-o-y basis in October – the biggest gain since July 2017.

The largest y-o-y gains – more than 25% – were recorded in Ontario’s Quinte & District and Woodstock-Ingersoll.

Y-o-y price increases in the 20-25% range were seen in Ottawa, London & St. Thomas, Tillsonburg District and some Ontario cottage country areas.

Y-o-y price gains followed this in the range of 15-20% in Barrie, Hamilton, Niagara, Guelph, Bancroft and Area, Brantford, Cambridge, Huron Perth, Kitchener-Waterloo, North Bay, Peterborough and the Kawarthas, Simcoe & District, Montreal and Greater Moncton.

Prices were up in the 10-15% range compared to last October in the GTA, Oakville-Milton, Mississauga and Northumberland Hills.

Meanwhile, y-o-y price gains were in the 5-10% range in Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan Valley, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg and Quebec City. Gains were less than 4% in Victoria and elsewhere on Vancouver Island, as well as in St. John’s, and prices were just inside positive territory y-o-y in Calgary and Edmonton.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price set another record in October 2020, coming in at $607,250. This was up 15.2% from the same month last year.

Bottom Line

Housing strength is largely attributable to record-low mortgage rates and pent-up demand by households that have maintained their income level during the pandemic. The hardest-hit households are low-wage earners in the accommodation, food services, and travel sectors. These are the folks that can least afford it and typically are not homeowners. The good news is that the housing market is contributing to the recovery in economic activity.

Since Pfizer’s announcement that they have a highly effective vaccine in the works, interest rates in the US have edged upward. This has been mitigated in part by the dramatic surge in COVID cases worldwide and tighter restrictions on activity. This morning, Modernal Inc. said its COVID-19 vaccine was 94.5% effective in preliminary analysis of a large late-stage clinical trial, another sign that a fast-paced hunt by scientists and pharmaceutical companies is paying off with potent new tools that could help control a worsening pandemic. This great news has pushed up the US and Canadian bond yields, leading many to suggest that a rise in mortgage rates can’t be far behind. Stock markets are rising sharply, especially in the US, where they are hitting new record highs.

The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is currently at .45%. It had been as low as .39% recently and .28% over the past year. The good news on the vaccine front may well be overblown given that expanded pandemic restrictions and record cases will dampen economic activity well through the winter months, mitigating the upward pressure on rates. Any mortgage rate increases will be 10 basis points or less, although discounts might start to disappear.

The October Labour Force Survey, released this morning by Stats Canada, showed an employment increase of 83,600–well below the 378,000 gain in September and average monthly gains of 395,000 over the past six months (see chart below). Several provinces tightened public health restrictions last month in response to a spike in COVID-19 cases. These measures were targeted at indoor restaurants and bars, and gyms.

Most of the job gains last month were in full-time work. Among those who worked at least half their usual hours, the number working from home increased by 150,000. Working remotely continues to be an important adaptation to COVID-19 health risks, with 2.4 million Canadians who do not normally work from home doing so in October.

The unemployment rate was little changed at 8.9% in October but remained well-below the May peak of 13.7%. In addition to the unemployed, 540,000 Canadians wanted to work in October but did not search for a job, down 39,000 from September and continuing a downward trend from a peak of 1.5 million in April. If people in this group were included as unemployed, the adjusted unemployment rate in October would be 11.3%.

Long-term joblessness—defined as unemployed and looking for work or temporary layoff for 27 weeks or more— increased again in October. Not surprisingly, more than half (53.3%) of the long-term unemployed were living in a household reporting difficulty meeting necessary expenses. As of October, the long-term unemployed totalled 448,000, or one-quarter of all unemployed people. September and October increases in long-term unemployment are by far the sharpest recorded since comparable data became available in 1976.

Job Gains Slow in Central Canada

Employment increased in the wholesale and retail trade industries in Ontario, two sectors largely unaffected by new COVID-19 restrictions. After five months of gains totalling 154,000, employment in Ontario’s accommodation and food services was virtually unchanged in the month and remained 15.7% below its pre-COVID February level. Employment declined in transportation and warehousing.

Following five consecutive months of gains, employment was little changed in Quebec in October, and the unemployment rate edged up 0.3 percentage points to 7.7%. Employment gains spread across several services-producing industries were partly offset by a drop of 42,000 in the accommodation and food services industry. The public health alert level in Montréal and Québec City was raised to “red” on October 1, which led to the closure of indoor restaurants and many cultural facilities. Travel between regions in the province was also discouraged. Over the subsequent two weeks, several other Quebec regions went to red alert, and additional measures were introduced.

Employment Grows in Alberta and BC

In British Columbia, employment grew by 34,000 (+1.4%) in October, adding to gains over the previous five months (+302,000). The unemployment rate fell for the fifth consecutive month, down 0.4 percentage points to 8.0% in October. In Vancouver, employment increased by 52,000 (+3.8%) and was within 4.3% of its pre-COVID level.

In Alberta, employment rose by 23,000 (+1.1%), the fifth increase in six months. Following large employment losses earlier this year, Calgary has posted four consecutive employment gains since summer, totalling 101,000 (+13.6%). Recent employment increases in Edmonton have been more modest, up 60,000 (+9.0%) since summer.

October employment gains in Alberta were spread across several industries, including healthcare and social assistance, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale and retail trade. Employment in natural resources edged up in the month but was down 5.2% on a year-over-year basis.

Employment Increases in Newfoundland and Labrador and PEI

In Newfoundland and Labrador, employment grew (+5,900) in October, while the unemployment rate fell 2.0 percentage points to 12.8%. Employment was also up in Prince Edward Island (+900), while the unemployment rate was virtually unchanged at 10.0%.

Hard-Hit Sectors of the Economy

The accommodation and food services industry were most directly affected by the recent tightening of public health measures—and, for the first time since April, employment declined in this industry in October. Employment in the arts, entertainment, and recreation sectors was farther from pre-COVID levels than any other sector in August. The next few months will shed light on the impact of public health restrictions on employment in this sector, which, like the accommodation and food services industry, has strong ties to travel and tourism.

With restrictions on travel and gathering still in place, the continuing impact of COVID-19 has been much more significant for the transportation of people than of goods. For example, the August Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours found that payroll employment in transit and ground passenger transportation was down by 17.8% from February to August, while payroll employment in truck transportation—primarily for goods—was down 7.9% for the same period. Similarly, in August, major Canadian airlines carried 86.8% fewer passengers than 12 months earlier, and Canadian railways carried 14.7% less freight.

In construction, employment was little changed for the third consecutive month in October, following increases totalling 190,000 (+16.2%) from April to July. Employment in construction was 7.5% (-112,000) below its February level in October. Recent data on housing stats showed a decline of 5.0% from September 2019 to September 2020, following two months of strong year-over-year increases.

Employment Growth Resumed in Retail Trade

Following a pause in September, employment growth resumed in retail trade, rising by 31,000 (+1.4%) in October, with most of the increase in Ontario. From February to April, employment declined by over one-fifth (-22.9%; -517,000) due to retail businesses’ closures during the first wave of COVID-19. In October, public health measures associated with the second wave did not include retail businesses’ requirements to close. Employment in this industry was 5.1% (-115,000) below its pre-COVID level and down by 2.4% (-54,000) compared with October 2019.

The Winners

Employment exceeded pre-COVID levels in three industries in October—wholesale trade; professional, scientific and technical services; and educational services.

In wholesale trade, employment increased by 15,000 (+2.3%) in October, driven by Alberta increases. Employment in this industry was 5.6% (+35,000) above its February level. The wholesale trade release’s latest results show that sales increased for the fourth consecutive month in August and were 1.7% above pre-COVID-19 levels.

Employment rose for the fourth consecutive month in professional, scientific and technical services, up 42,000 (+2.7%) in October and led by Ontario (+23,000). With this gain, this industry’s employment was 3.3% (+51,000) higher than its pre-COVID level. Job security among employees in this industry includes computer systems design and related services; architecture, engineering and related services; and legal services tend to be higher than in other industries.

Employment was little changed in educational services in October but exceeded its February level by 2.8% (+39,000). Compared with October 2019, employment in this industry increased by 32,000, in part a reflection of some jurisdictions increasing staffing levels to support classroom adaptations brought on by COVID-19.

Compared with other industries, a relatively high share of workers in educational services (25.8% in 2019) is temporary employees, reflecting the relatively high prevalence of teaching staff hired on a contract basis. While the number of temporary employees decreased markedly following the initial COVID-19 economic shutdown, it had rebounded in October (little changed on a year-over-year basis, not seasonally adjusted), helping to boost overall employment in the industry. Permanent employees in educational services also contributed to the recovery of this industry on a year-over-year basis. In October, the number of permanent employees was up 5.6% compared with 12 months earlier (not seasonally adjusted).

Bottom Line

The economic recovery remains dependent on the evolution of the pandemic. It is likely that extensive lockdown measures, such as the widespread closures imposed early in the pandemic, will not be reintroduced. However, more localized and moderate containment measures will ebb and flow. The Bank of Canada suggests that vaccines and effective treatments will be widely available by mid-2022, at which time the direct effects of the pandemic on economic activity will have ended. However, households’ precautionary behaviour and the effects of the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 are likely to linger.

The pandemic is also likely to have persistent effects on the preferences and behaviours of consumers and businesses. This could lead to lasting changes to the economy’s structure and could weigh on its potential output. The sizes and timing of such effects are difficult to estimate precisely. Given these considerations, the outlook for Canadian and global economic activity remains unusually uncertain.

The most recent COVID Consumer Spending Tracker, produced by the RBC economics group, that second wave worries have shifted more spending online. Household, clothing, and retail spending held steady, while travel spending continued to decline. Spending on dining out edged downward last month as cooler whether rendered outdoor dining less appealing. Entertainment expenditures ticked downward as well.

The regional real estate boards in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal recently released their October housing reports showing continued sales activity and upward price prices except in the condo space, particularly smaller condos that were bought on spec for the rental market. With the nosedive in tourism, the short-term rental market has collapsed. Many of these former Airbnb properties are either for sale or have moved into the long-term rental space, driving down prices. The dearth of immigration this year has also exacerbated the decline in rent. Condo listings are rising faster than sales in many regions. In contrast, lower rise properties remain in very tight supply, and prices continue to rise. We will provide more details on housing trends with the release of the CREA data late next week.