13 Feb

Choosing The Big 6 Means Mortgage Customers Are Overpaying

General

Posted by: John Dunford

The Big 6 banks dominate the Canadian mortgage market but may not be the best choice for borrowers.

An analysis from LowestRates.ca has found that, in 2018, Canada’s largest banks – RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC, and National Bank of Canada – were consistently the most expensive options.

Even the lowest rates of the Big 6 were always costlier than the lowest rates from smaller lenders, the study found.

“The big banks never offer the lowest posted rates on the market, but Canadians aren’t spending enough time researching rates before signing their mortgages, and that’s potentially costing them thousands of dollars a year,” said Justin Thouin, CEO and Co-Founder of LowestRates.ca.

He added that Canadians are used to shopping around for the best prices on items such as TVs or vacations but often fail to realise that the same strategy could mean big savings on their mortgage.

How much could borrowers save?

As a typical example, LowestRates.ca found that when RBC lowered its 5-year rate to 3.74%, consumers on that rate would pay $2,560 per month on a $500,000 mortgage (assuming a down payment of at least 20% per cent to avoid CMHC insurance, and a 25-year amortization period).

But the best available rate on LowestRates.ca was 3.23%, saving borrowers $134 per month (with a payment of $2,426) – or a staggering $40,200 over the lifetime of the loan.

“Brokers and smaller lenders often drop their rates first to be more competitive, and banks are slower to implement changes because they know they own the market,” Thouin said. “This will only change when Canadians realize they’re being overcharged and begin to shift away from the banks, and that will only happen as we increase awareness about the alternative market. The best deals are found online, not in your family’s legacy bank branch.”

10 Feb

Canadian jobs surge in January as jobless rate rises to 5.8%

General

Posted by: John Dunford

Housing News

January Data From Local Real Estate Boards

In separate releases, the local real estate boards in Canada’s largest housing markets released data this week showing home sales fell sharply in Vancouver, edged upward in Toronto and continued robust in Montreal. Overall, higher interest rates, the mortgage stress test and in the case of Vancouver, measures adopted a year ago by the BC and municipal governments still keep many buyers on the sidelines.

In Vancouver, home sales are in a deep slump, declining 39% year/year in January, though they were up 3% month/month. Sales in January were the weakest for that month since 2009–the depth of the financial crisis. Hardest hurt were sales of luxury properties.

The Vancouver benchmark price fell 4.5%, which was the most significant decline since the recession. The area’s composite benchmark price now has decreased by 7.7% since the cyclical peak in June 2018.

The number of listings rose sharply from a year earlier as sellers rushed to market fearing further price declines. In Vancouver, supply-demand conditions now favour buyers.
Toronto home sales edged higher in January, rising 0.6% year/year. Sales were up 3.4% compared to December 2018. The benchmark price rose 2.7% compared to January 2018. The condo apartment market segment continues to lead the price gains. Toronto area supply-demand conditions remain balanced.

Montreal saw a 15% year/year increase in sales last month. Demand remains robust as the number of active listings fell sharply. Benchmark prices of single-family homes increased 3% year/year, while condos prices rose 2%.

Montreal is now a highly desirable sellers’ market, which is especially true in the single-family home segment in direct contrast to the underperformance of that sector in the GVA and the GTA over the past year.

CMHC Says Overvaluation Decreasing But Housing Still ‘Vulnerable’

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said this week that the country’s overall real estate market remains ‘vulnerable’ despite an easing in overvaluation in cities like Toronto and Victoria in the third quarter of 2018. CMHC is using old data, as we already have numbers through yearend 2018 and preliminary data for January, all showing that overheating in Toronto and Vancouver has dissipated.

Many Calling for Mortgage Stress Test Review

Local real estate boards, mortgage professionals’ trade groups and some economists are calling for some relief on the stringency of the federal regulator’s mortgage stress test. According to Phil Moore, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, “Today’s market conditions are largely the result of the mortgage stress test that the federal government imposed at the beginning of last year. This measure, coupled with an increase in mortgage rates, took away as much as 25% of purchasing power from many homebuyers trying to enter the market.”

Economists at CIBC and BMO this week highlighted that the tightened qualification requirements for mortgage applicants had slowed activity measurably. While raising the qualification rate by 200 basis points might have made sense eighteen months ago, when housing markets were red hot in Vancouver and Toronto and interest rates were at record lows, we are in a very different place in the economic cycle today.

The Bank of Canada has raised the overnight benchmark policy rate by 75 basis points since the introduction of the new measures, which begs the question of whether 200 basis points is still the right number.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) introduced the B20 rules in January 2018 aiming to thwart a credit bubble amid inflated household debt burdens and frothy housing markets. The new rules force people who want a new uninsured mortgage to demonstrate they can manage payments at rates two percentage points above what’s being offered by a lender. The new rules have been very effective in cooling household borrowing and reversing the gains in overheated housing markets.

Indeed, mortgage growth has shrunk to a 17-year low in Canada. Residential mortgage growth was posted at 3.1% in December from a year earlier, the slowest pace since May 2001, and half the growth rate of two years ago.

The slowdown in housing has had a material effect on the economy as a whole. Weakened economic growth has moved the Bank of Canada to the sidelines. While the Bank is now more cautious in jacking up the policy rate to a neutral level, the residential mortgage market is now–in a stress-test perspective–well into restrictive territory. For example, the Bank’s policy rate is at 1.75% (well below the 2.5% rate the BoC considers neutral), while posted mortgage rate used for stress testing is at 5.34%.

This week, OSFI defended the B20 rule suggesting that “The stress test is, quite simply, a safety buffer that ensures a borrower doesn’t stretch their borrowing capacity to its maximum, leaving no room to absorb unforeseen events.”

Canadian Job Market Surges in January

Statistics Canada released its January Labour Force Survey this morning showing employment increases of 66,800 versus expectation of merely a 5,000 job gain. The surge was led by record private-sector hiring and service sector jobs for youth. This is good news for an economy facing considerable headwinds in the oil sector, weakening housing activity, volatile financial markets and falling consumer confidence. If sustained, the strong employment data will ease some concerns about the length and depth of the current soft patch.

Even with the strength in job creation, the unemployment rate jumped 0.2 percentage points to 5.8% as more people looked for work–a sign of strength. This suggests there is more capacity in the economy before inflation pressures begin to mount–a big point for the Bank of Canada. Economic growth is now hovering around 1%, but the Bank of Canada expects it to recover to about a 2% pace in the second half of this year. The central bank will remain on the sidelines until it can verify that a rebound is occurring.

Wage gains remained depressed, a key indicator for the Bank. Average hourly wages were up 2% from a year ago, with pay for permanent employees up 1.8%.

Alberta, which has been flattened by slumping oil prices and production cuts, posted a second consecutive monthly decline in employment. Ontario led the job surge followed by Quebec.

Provincial Unemployment Rates
(% 2019, In Ascending Order)

Province                                                  Jan        Dec
British Columbia                                   4.7         4.4
Quebec                                                    5.4         5.5
Saskatchewan                                        5.5         5.6
Manitoba                                                5.5         6.0
Ontario                                                    5.7         5.4
Alberta                                                    6.8         6.4
Nova Scotia                                            6.9         7.0
New Brunswick                                     8.2         8.4
Prince Edward Island                          9.9         9.6
Newfoundland and Labrador          11.4        11.7

6 Feb

Mortgage Rules Are The Prudent Approach To Underwriting Says OSFI

General

Posted by: John Dunford

The tighter mortgage rules introduced at the start of 2018 have been defended by the financial services regulator.

The B-20 mortgage guidelines continue to be cited by Realtors for falling home sales and there have been countless calls for them to be changed or scrapped.

But the assistant superintendent of OSFI spoke Tuesday to defend the methods the regulator is using to ensure stability of the Canadian financial system.

In a speech to the Economic Club of Canada in Toronto, Carolyn Rogers acknowledged the huge number of articles and commentaries there have been over the past year – and noting that B-20 even has its own social media hashtag.

But she said that all the OSFI rules go through a public consultation and all receive feedback which is listened to.

Stress test criticism

Ms. Rogers spoke specifically about the element of B-20 which has received the most attention – and continues to weaken home sales and challenge those who want to be homebuyers.

“The stress test is, quite simply, a safety buffer that ensures a borrower doesn’t stretch their borrowing capacity to its maximum, leaving no room to absorb unforeseen events. This is simply prudent. It’s prudent for the bank and it’s prudent for the borrower too,” she said.

She acknowledged that OSFI has received criticism of the stress test but said there had been positive feedback too.

Addressing those who say the stress test is a national policy to deal with a localized problem, she says that it is wrong to say that the policy was designed to lower home prices.

“B-20 was designed to target mortgage underwriting standards. And sound underwritings look the same no matter what city or province you live in,” she stated.

The deputy superintendent also pointed out that the stress test is not just designed as a buffer to rising interest rates – responding to those who say now rates are higher the buffer should be reduced.

“Borrowers face other risks that can impact their ability to pay their mortgage that I mentioned earlier: changes to income or changes to expenses other than their mortgage. It’s prudent to have a buffer for these changes as well,” Ms Rogers said.

OSFI continues to monitor the situation in consultation with the BoC she added.

Unregulated lenders

Responding to the view that tighter lending standards for regulated mortgage lenders is driving consumers to unregulated lenders, Ms. Rogers accepted that this is a risk.

But she urged mortgage brokers and real estate agents to mitigate this by guiding vulnerable homebuyers including first-time buyers in the right direction.

“The mortgage broker and the real estate industry are well placed to help manage this risk. If you see risks, if you think these options put your borrower in a vulnerable position, you can steer them away. That would be the right thing to do,” she said.

Renewals exemption

The exemption for borrowers who renew with their existing lender but would not pass the stress test has been criticized as dampening competition, as the exemption does not pass to the new lender.

The deputy superintendent said that changing this could displace borrowers who are meeting obligations to their current lender and could see borrowers becoming the focus of price competition.

Whether this lack of portability means those renewing receive less favourable rates by existing lenders has not been shown by OSFI’s monitoring.

More debt is not the answer to home affordbality

Ms. Rogers concluded by saying that the answer to rising home affordability issues is not greater debt fuelled by lower underwriting standards.

While noting that the issues of housing costs were a problem that is proving highly challenging, she defended OSFI’s policies and the criticism of ‘unintended consequences’ and highlighted that weaker lending standards have been shown to do more harm to financial stability than the benefits they were intended to create.

10 Dec

What To Expect In 2019

General

Posted by: John Dunford

The Canadian economy is showing cracks in its foundation and, beginning with turmoil in Alberta, they will reverberate through the coming year.

Alberta’s oil glut in tandem with the federal government’s inability to build pipelines is having country-wide ramifications.

“The federal government has not been able to get its pipelines done and it’s really hurt the prospects of the Canadian economy,”  “That, along with the closing of the GM plant in Oshawa—eventually there will not be a GM plant in Canada—and I can see the Canadian and U.S. economies taking downturns.”

Even if the province goes ahead with a railcar transportation option, too much time will pass in the interim.

“They’re not going to have any way of getting their oil out,” said Ron Butler. “If they buy railcars, they won’t come on stream until November of next year.”

We expect fixed rates to be up to 0.5% higher in 2019 because of the variable rate spike and, specifically, how much more expensive it is for lenders to fund mortgages in light of repeated government intervention in the market.

“It’s become a lot more expensive for lenders to do mortgages with all the government intervention and the level of insurance they have to carry and their capital expenses,” he said. “It means higher rates. Banks are 1.8% above the five-year government bond rate and they’re happy to make a profit. Banks want to make up for their lower volume through higher rates, so they’re making more off every deal because it’s no longer a volume play.”

The Greater Toronto Area isn’t likely to change much next year. While there isn’t necessarily anything to make it worse, there doesn’t appear to be anything on the horizon that will improve it, either.

“There will be a softening of values, lower sales units and reduced total mortgage originations across the province,”. “There will be a tiny softening on the price side. Bear in mind that this year was down and next year will be even less so. There’s nothing that will improve it. Will the economy get better? No chance of that. Are mortgage rules suddenly going to be revised so that it will be enormously easier to get a mortgage? No chance.”

Condo sales will be strong in Toronto proper next year, but the 905 will be languid and so will the single-family detached market.

“Toronto is a tale of two markets,”. “Condos and houses, and people aren’t  just buying for investment purposes.”

5 Dec

Rate Rises May Be Reshaped By Oil Production Cuts Says CIBC

General

Posted by: John Dunford

The Bank of Canada will announce its December interest rates decision Wednesday and few are expecting a Grinch-like pre-Christmas shock.

But while there should be a pause on rate rises this month, a change from the central bank’s previously bullish tone on rate rises will be in focus given some shifting conditions since October’s increase.

CIBC Economics says that it may be necessary for the BoC to ease back from its confident stance of increasing rates to a 2.5-3.5% range, a range that CIBC believed was too aggressive even then.

With the oil production cuts announced by Alberta at the weekend, along with some other economic conditions, economist Avery Shenfeld says the BoC may sound a more dovish tone.

He says that the oil production cut will reduce real GDP in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 but that is not the only issue.

“More broadly, wage inflation seems to be in retreat, and GDP growth has been zero over the most recent two months. South of the border, both the Fed Chair and Vice Chair sounded less assured that American overnight rates would keep climbing as steadily as they have in the past year,” Avery wrote in a client note.

The BoC is not due to update its outlook at tomorrow’s meeting but Shenfeld says that there could still be some mention of the downside risks to previous GDP expectations.

CIBC Economics is holding steady on its forecast that interest rates will increase by 50 basis points in 2019 stretched over two hikes.

4 Dec

No Rate Rise at Least February Suggests C.D. Howe Institute

General

Posted by: John Dunford

The Bank of Canada should hold pat on interest rates until the spring according to The C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council.

It is calling for a hold-steady at 1.75% in December and January, with the next rate rise taking place by May 2019 (2%) and then a further rise by the end of 2019 to 2.25%.

The MPC provides an independent assessment of the monetary stance consistent with the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target.

The MPC was unanimous in its opinion that rates should not rise when the BoC meets to decide next week, although was split on what to do in January with 4 in favour or a hike and 6 against.

Why the caution?

Many of the MPC members are concerned about lower global growth in the near and medium term and weaker demand for Canadian natural resources. This is worsened by the oil transportation challenges for producers.

Several members noted that lower prices and volumes for Canadian exports would depress national income in the coming quarters, with adverse effects for business and government revenues.

Domestically, although consumer credit has been growing strongly, mortgage lending has levelled off with housing activity, and the announcement that GM will close its Oshawa plant signifies that the auto cycle is past its peak.

Although some MPC members said that the federal government’s recent announcement of accelerated capital cost allowances will help at the margin, they emphasized that businesses are shifting to a defensive stance: the forecasters in the group said they had not revised their projections of business investment up appreciably.

7 Nov

Jobless Rate Falls in Canada, But Wage Growth Slows

General

Posted by: John Dunford

Canada posted moderate employment gains as the unemployment rate dipped once again to historically low levels, which was the result of fewer people look for work. Despite very tight labour markets and rising job vacancy rates, wage growth weakened in October.

Statistics Canada released data today that showed a moderate 11.2k gain in employment, but also a falling labour force, which was down 18.2k. In consequence, the jobless rate fell back to 5.8% in October, matching a four-decade low. This is consistent with just under 2% economic growth as the Bank of Canada expects. This modest gain in employment suggests the Bank will hold interest rates steady in December, especially given that wage gains have slowed for the fifth consecutive month.

Continuing the see-saw pattern of late, full-time employment was in the driver’s seat, with 33.9k net positions added. Part-time work fell 22.6k. The overall gains were driven by the private sector (+20.3k) as public sector employment pulled back (-30.8k), leaving a 21.8k gain in self-employment.

These indicators are consistent with business surveys that are getting louder in their complaints that it’s difficult to find workers. But there is little evidence that firms are offering better pay to attract and retain employees. Wages were up 2.2% from a year ago, the slowest pace in more than a year and down from as high as 3.9% earlier this year. Wage gains for permanent workers were 1.9%, also the slowest in more than a year. This reduces the likelihood of a rate hike in December. The Bank of Canada’s wage common measure has been more stable at 2.3% so far this year. This is a better indicator of the underlying trend, but no doubt it’s still short of what we would expect at this point in the cycle.

Also, the participation rate fell to 65.2% last month, the lowest level in 20 years as the labour force increased by just 62.5k so far this year–one of the smallest 10-month gains in recent history. It is notable, however, that the participation rate for 25-54 year-olds–the core labour force–rose to a record high.

On a regional basis, employment rose slightly in Saskatchewan, while there was little change in all the other provinces (see table below).

More people were employed in business, building and other support services; wholesale and retail trade; and health care and social assistance. In contrast, there were fewer workers in “other services;” finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing; and natural resources. Employment in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing declined by 15,000 in October, offsetting an increase the month before. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the industry was little changed as housing starts, and resales have slowed, especially in B.C. and Ontario.

Bottom Line: Income growth will be crucial in enabling households to manage debt loads in a rising rate environment and by extension a key determinant of the pace of future Bank of Canada interest rate hikes. Today’s jobs report along with other less timely data suggest the Bank of Canada will refrain from raising interest rates in December.

US Posted A Strong October Jobs Report

Hiring rebounded sharply last month in the US as non-farm payrolls added 250k new jobs, compared to 118k in September, which was restrained by disruption from Hurricane Florence. The unemployment rate held at its cycle-low 3.7%.

The closely watched measure of wage growth–average hourly earnings– rose 0.2% on the month. On a year-over-year basis, wages in the US were up 3.1%, a new post-recession high.

This is an unambiguously positive report. Hiring bounced back from a hurricane-dampened September. The number of Americans with jobs relative to the population reached a new post-recession high. And, perhaps most notably, wages continue to make progress.

With the Fed just having moved in September, we are not anticipating another hike at next week’s FOMC meeting as the central bank adheres to a gradual pace of tightening. However, our forecast does anticipate a 25-basis point increase at the next policy meeting in December followed by similar-sized hikes every quarter through next year. This results in the upper end of the fed funds rate range finishing 2019 at 3.50% compared to 2.25% currently.

26 Oct

Poloz Rate Hike Had A Hawkish Tone

General

Posted by: John Dunford

As was universally expected, the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council hiked overnight rates this morning by 25 basis points taking the benchmark yield to 1-3/4%. This marked the fifth rate increase since the current tightening phase began in July 2017 (see chart below). The central bank stated it would return the overnight rate to a neutral stance, dropping the word ‘gradually’ that was used to describe the upward progression in yields since this process began. Market watchers will certainly note this omission. For the first time in years, the Bank has acknowledged it expects to remove monetary stimulus from the economy entirely.

So what is the neutral overnight rate? According to today’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), “the neutral nominal policy rate is defined as the real rate consistent with output sustainably at its potential level and inflation equal to target, on an ongoing basis, plus 2% for the inflation target. It is a medium- to long-term equilibrium concept.” For Canada, the neutral rate is estimated to be between 2.5% and 3.5%, which implies that at a minimum, three more 25 basis point rate hikes are likely over the next year or so.

The Bank of Canada emphasized that the global economic outlook remains solid and that the U.S. economy is particularly robust, but is expected to moderate as U.S.-China trade tensions weigh on growth and commodity prices. The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) eliminated a good deal of uncertainty for Canadian exports, which will reignite business confidence and investment. Business investment and exports have been of concern in recent quarters, and the Bank is now looking towards a resurgence in these sectors, augmented by the recently-approved liquid natural gas project in British Columbia.

A continuing concern, however, is the decline in Canadian oil prices. Western Canada Select (WCS), a local blend that represents about half of Canada’s crude oil exports, has declined about 60% since July as global oil prices have risen (see chart below). WCS plunged below US$20 a barrel last week posting the biggest discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on record in Bloomberg data back to 2008. WCS generally tracks heavy oil from Canada, which typically trades at a discount to WTI because of quality issues as well as the cost of transport from Alberta to the refineries in the U.S.

Canadian pipelines are already filled to the brim. The inability of the Canadian oil industry to build a major pipeline from Alberta to either the U.S. or the Pacific Ocean is increasingly dragging down domestic oil prices. Oil-by-rail shipments to the U.S. are at an all-time high, but this is an expensive and potentially unsafe option and precludes Canadian oil exports to China and Japan.


An even broader concern is the impact of higher interest rates on debt-laden consumers. The Bank is well aware of the risks, as the MPR cited that “consumption is projected to grow at a healthy pace, although the pace of spending gradually slows in response to rising interest rates… Higher mortgage rates and the changes to mortgage guidelines are affecting the dynamics of housing activity. Housing resales responded quickly to the new mortgage guidelines, and the level of resale activity is expected to continue on a lower trajectory than before the changes. New home construction is shifting toward smaller units, although stronger population growth is estimated to raise fundamental demand for housing.”

Household credit growth has slowed, and the share of new mortgages with high loan-to-income ratios has fallen. The ratio of household debt to income has levelled off and is expected to edge downward (see chart below).


Low-ratio mortgage originations declined by about 15% in the second quarter of 2018 relative to the same quarter in 2017 (see charts below). The MPR shows that “while activity fell for all categories of borrowers, the drop was more pronounced for those with a loan-to-income ratio above 450%, leading to a decline in the number of new highly indebted households”.

Bottom Line: The Bank of Canada believes the economy will grow about 2% per year in 2018, 2019 and 2020, in line with their upwardly revised estimate of potential growth of 1.9%. The Bank asserts that mortgage tightening measures of the past two years have “reduced household vulnerabilities,” although the “sheer size of the outstanding debt means that vulnerability will persist for some time”. That is Bank of Canada doublespeak. What it means is expect three more rate hikes by the end of next year.

25 Oct

1 in 3 Fear Rate Rises Could Move Them Towards Bankruptcy

General

Posted by: John Dunford

With the Bank of Canada widely expected to increase interest rates Wednesday, a poll from debt advisors MNP shows rising concern over higher rates.

The survey, conducted by Ipsos, found that 1 in 3 Canadians are worried that rising interest rates could push them towards bankruptcy, up 6% since June.

More than half (52%) of respondents said that they are concerned about affording their debts as rates climb, that’s up 3% since June.

The share of those who say they are feeling the effects or recent rate rises; and the share who say future rises could put them in financial trouble; both hit 45%.

Almost two thirds of both Millennial and Gen X respondents are concerned about the impact of interest rate rises on their ability to service debts, while Boomers are less concerned (40%).

The poll reveals that 80% will cut back on spending to counter the effects of rising rates and there is some optimism about debt situations with 28% saying theirs has improved in the past year, 39% expecting improvement in the next year, and 50% saying improvement will be within 5 years.

Two in five said they regret the level of debt they have.

Albertans (20%) are most likely to say their current debt situation is worse, followed by residents of Atlantic Canada (17%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (15%), Ontario (13%), Quebec (10%), and British Columbia (8%).

Quebec residents (49%) are most likely to rate their personal debt situation as good, followed by residents British Columbia (45%), Ontario (38%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (34%), Alberta (33%) and Atlantic Canada (28%).

9 Oct

IBC: Expect Two Rate Rises in the Next 3 Months

General

Posted by: John Dunford

Homeowners could be facing two interest rate rises in the coming months according to an updated forecast.

CIBC Capital Markets said Thursday that it was already expecting a rate rise in October due to anticipation that a NAFTA deal would happen. The agreement of the next-gen trade deal USMCA supports the earlier forecast.

However, economists are now calling for a further rate rise in January 2019, slightly earlier than it had been forecasting. That’s due to recent positive data points.

The good news for homeowners with mortgages is that, following those two rate rises within three months, CIBC Capital Markets believes there will need to be a “prolonged pause” by the BoC due to the “elevated sensitivity of households” to the interest rate hikes.

The outlook also forecasts that the Canadian dollar will strengthen over the next six months or so before easing back to the low 1.30s against the greenback by mid-2019.

Challenges ahead for the economy

CIBC economists Andrew Grantham and Royce Mendes have posted their economic outlook for the coming years and highlighted some challenges.

These include rising mortgage rates, attracting and retaining talent, and a US slowdown by 2020.

Provincially, Alberta is expected to see stronger growth in 2018 than previously predicted due to a resurgence of oil production.

BC is set for weaker growth than expected due to the slowdown in the housing market, which is a key driver of growth in the province. The economists note that there has been a more pronounced slowdown in the BC housing market activity than in Ontario and not much of a rebound so far.

The outlook also suggests a slowdown in consumer spending in BC and Ontario as the provinces see the biggest impact from rising interest rates.

The report highlights that 5-year mortgages will be renewed at higher rates for the first time in a generation.